How Does the World Work?


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July 10, 2009

What did you expect from the G-8?

A quick note from Innsbruck, Austria. Internet access isn't what one is used to in the US! So I've not gotten a chance to catch up on events. Actually that is a good thing! Relaxing amid beautiful scenery and very pleasant cultural attitudes (except for the fact that every third person smokes and smoking in resturants is common) is actually quite nice.

But I did catch a report on the G-8 summit in Italy regarding the talks on climate change and what the countries are going to agree on doing about it. Not surprisingly they appear to have agreed to put off agreeing about anything substantive. What a surprise there?

The leadership of the world powers continue to disappoint me in their failure to grasp our situation and their lack of courage in standing up for real change. But then consider that real action in slowing greenhouse gas emissions means slowing and retracting economic progress in producing the gadgets and luxuries that the people in developed nations have come to expect as their birthrights, then it shouldn't surprise anyone that the 'leaders' are impotent. They got into their positions by promising the people (especially the wealthy and powerful) that they would do what would be in the interest of keeping this illusion of wealth going. Doing the right thing would be breaking their promise!

I love Europe. I love the generally easier pace of life. I love that in the evenings people get out and walk through the cities, or bike. I love the lower traffic congestion in smaller towns. I could easily live here even if it meant learning a foriegn language. But even here there is a sense that consumption of things is completely normal and justifiable. The few people I have talked to about energy and climate change do not seem to see the connection between having stuff and burning fossil fuels. Two people actually thought the whole problem was based on automobiles and the US's over-the-top life styles. They didn't seem to get that electricity generation was a bigger problem.

The average European energy consumption per capita is, indeed, much less than the average American's. Nevertheless, the average European still expects to have a lifestyle that accounts for huge consumption of fossil fuels. But the connection between having stuff and burning fossil fuels seems to be as hazy in their minds here as it is in the US. Granted I've talked to very few people, so this isn't anything like a valid sample -- just an impression. I think the greater part of this impression comes from looking in the store fronts and seeing pretty much the same sorts of products and glitz that one sees in a typical American mall.

Anyway, it is refreshing to get away from the American rat race for a bit and enjoy more of a rat promenade! I've finally gotten some time to study more Nietzsche. The more I read of his work and some interpretations of his work, the more I think he and I would have had some pleasant conversations were we contemporaries. I will probably have many more thoughts to share on this in the future.

July 05, 2009

Tom, Tom, Tom. When are you going to pay attention to reality?

Once again I applaud Tom Friedman ("Can I Clean Your Clock?", Sunday, July 5, 2009, New York Times Opinion) for at least getting in the right quadrant of the problem domain. But unfortunately he still is a Pollyanna when it comes to technological 'fixes' for the energy/GHG problems we face. In referring to his previous interactions with Chinese folk regarding economic growth on dirty fossil fuel energy, he says...

It’s a hard argument to refute. Eventually, I decided that the only way to respond was with some variation of the following: "You're right. It’s your turn. Grow as dirty as you want. Take your time. Because I think America just needs five years to invent all the clean-power technologies you Chinese are going to need as you choke to death on pollution. Then we're going to come over here and sell them all to you, and we are going to clean your clock — how do you say ‘clean your clock’ in Chinese? — in the next great global industry: clean power technologies. So if you all want to give us a five-year lead, that would be great. I'd prefer 10. So take your time. Grow as dirty as you want."

He goes on to warn that now the Chinese get it and are turning to green technology. They will, in his view, end up cleaning our clocks when it comes to developing what he calls 'ET', energy technology.

Friedman continues to talk to enthusiastic entrepreneurs and economists who push the idea that green technologies will allow us to continue on in our lifestyle (USA), let the developing nations achieve our lifestyle, save the planet from global warming and provide endless jobs for the burgeoning population. What a miracle from capitalism at its best, more investment (presumably from deeper debt), and that 'can do' American technological inventiveness that made this country great! Wow!

Friedman ought to talk to real physicists and biophysical economists. He ought to talk to people like Vaclav Smil who has made an academic career working on the nuts and bolts of energy economics, including actually understanding some things about energy technology. He rightly called the corn ethanol scam long ago and has many insightful comments about biofuels overall — as in they can't possibly fill the liquid fuels need of a nation or world bent on everyone owning a car. It's physically (biologically, photosynthetically) impossible. He also has pointed out the woeful gap between the energy density of fossil fuels and solar/wind alternatives. The vast majority of people, and Tom Friedman it seems, listen to the enthusiastic claims made in the press and think that is reality. And believe me there is a huge amount of enthusiasm out there. The vast majority of it is delusional, I'm afraid. Doesn't anyone pay attention in physics classes anymore?

Actually, the Friedman article points out that the Chinese do get it and are launching massive efforts, marshalling major resources as only a dictatorship can, it seems, to go green. This is a good thing for us for no other reason than we will watch them do the experiments in converting to green power and see how it goes. They will invest the resources trying to substitute green for fossil fuels and we can learn from their experiences. What we will learn (after you factor out the inevitable hype) is that green can help marginally but it will never replace carbon (and hydrogen attached) in the generation of huge amounts of electricity and liquid fuels needed to run a large, affluent-achieving, and growing economy. The only technology that could conceivably produce that much power is nuclear, and the scaling problem (building enough units in time) as well as remaining technical problems with safety and waste disposal aren't going to just disappear (though there are some hopeful ideas out there on both fronts).

Once the Chinese have made a go of it with green and we still see massive hunger, unemployment, and many other consequences of not having enough energy per capita to build the kind of world we Americans have created, then maybe we will start looking reality in the face. Unfortunately, by the time that experiment runs itself out, it will be way too late for us to rationally direct our remaining resources to what will work. See my series: Steps Toward an Energy Solution

Friedman and other pundits who advocate technological (and capitalistic) solutions to our energy/climate/population/food/etc. problems are unknowingly steering us toward a bleak future. Their hearts are in the right place. They want a good life for all. But their heads are screwed on backward. They are looking at the past and the way the free enterprise approach produced all this material wealth (at the expense of the environment, our health and real happiness) and assuming that more of the same is the way to go. All they advocate is changing the direction of what investments we make. They honestly, but wrongly, believe that there is a technological fix right around the corner and all we need do is unleash our inventive entrepreneurs who will, like white knights on horses, come charging in with the 'solutions'. Friedman likes the 'ET' acronym because it emulates the 'IT' acronym for information technology. But unfortunately for Tom and the rest of us, energy doesn't work the same way information does! It has its own set of laws that have serious implications for just how much leverage technology can get us (see the series above for where those true leverage points are).

So I can't blame the pundits for their enthusiasm. I can, however, voice my disappointment in the lack of unbiased, objective investigation into the nature of the real problem and the realization that we will be operating by a new set of rules as fossil fuels decline in abundance and energy return on energy invested declines more precipitously. My greatest fear is that as this pollyannaish vision gets trashed by facts on the ground, there will be a significant amount of anger directed at those who steered us in the wrong direction on the basis of a vision through those rose-colored glasses and blind-sided by ideology.

July 03, 2009

Organizing Question Everything

Some time back I received several e-mails from readers requesting that I figure out a way to provide a convenient index of links for the various series of subjects that I have been working on. I thought the category list (on the left panel) would suffice. But since Typepad organizes posts with the most recent at the top, and since they are in reverse chronological order, it is almost impossible to track down a sequence with interspersed odd posts here and there.

I just got back from California and am about to leave for another trip (3 weeks) so may not be writing much for the next month. I thought this would be a good time to fix that problem.

So I've put together a page with a set of indexes for each of these series. The page is located on my work server. Each of the subjects are actually part of my "official" work as an academic, so this is justified use of state resources. There is a new item in the left panel with the link also there. So those of you who might want to read (or re-read) any of these subjects in order you can always reach the index page and then get to the posts.

A reader identifying herself as an editor for a "small" publishing house actually triggered this reorganization effort. She was interested in editing some or all for one or more books! While I am not interested in trying to write books (I have about three in various stages of completeness!), except for the Systems Science series possibly, it did make me think about at least providing a rational organization for reading in order.

I'm not interested in writing books anymore because, frankly, it is too constraining. Writing a blog is liberating. I don't worry about writing in a particular style or restraining my line of thinking to one concentrated subject. And I am not concerned with deadlines.

Moreover, I've seen what having a published book does to someone. It turns them into a salesperson! Their objective is to sell as many copies as possible. They are obsessed with reaching the largest audience and having a demonstrable impact on people's thinking. Sure, I offer my blog to a few other blogs (like Dot Earth or The Oil Drum) where there is an audience of similar mind. But I don't push it much more than that and I certainly don't have a publicist!

I write for myself. I write to clarify my ideas for myself. I write to discover new questions. And I write to work out what answers seem appropriate to me. If others (you dear readers) find anything of value here that is heartening and I'm glad.

Maybe that editor will tackle the job (I won't necessarily say no). But what I write is put out for free. I expect no compensation and don't expect anyone else to profit from my efforts.

The next month should be extremely interesting in terms of the global economy. There is a lot of fulmination in various markets and especially in the financial sector. Will GM fail to come out of bankruptcy court in a salvageable shape? Will more banks fail? Will housing prices bottom out and recover at least some paper value? Will the job losses continue apace? So many questions.

One thing I am reasonably sure of; the political leadership will not grasp the reality of declining energy available to do economic work any time soon. Nor will they recognize the deep relationship between energy and true wealth. So as things get worse (and I am reasonably confident that even with some small short-lived recovery signs things will get worse) they will simply bear down harder with their wrong-thinking "solutions". Some bankers may get richer in paper terms in the short run. But we will all be a lot poorer in the longer run. When, I wonder, will people finally have had enough?  Well, when they do they will need some real ideas about what to do. The several series of posts linked above might be worth thinking about in that regard.

June 29, 2009

Help!

What is a better name for hierarchical control?

I am wrapping up my involvement in a conference called "Science, Wisdom, and the Future" (you can imagine why I would be here if you've read these blogs for a while!) I haven't had a lot of time to think about writing while I've been here, but one thing came up that I thought I'd get out quickly to see if any of you out there could help me with.

As some of you know I have proposed the application of hierarchical control theory in understanding the natural forms of governance of complex, adaptive systems that evolves quite naturally. I have suggested that understanding the theory will help us intentionally develop a more sapient form of governance for our societies and economies. And from comments and e-mails I've gotten a number of readers have found the ideas palatable if not compelling.

But during the course of discussions at this conference it has become clear that most people are repelled by the terms 'hierarchical' and 'control'! It evokes an image of a top-down command-and-control system, essentially a dictatorship or some kind of authoritarian bureaucracy. Those of you who have read my other writing, I hope, realize that I mean anything but such an organization. But once the phrase 'hierarchical control' is out there, too many people throw up barriers to further communications. Perhaps some who have discovered my blog and read these words have had a similar reaction.

As I have attempted to further explain my meaning of the terms here, people generally do finally come around to realizing that their semantics and mine are from two very different perspectives. Once we get past the terminology differences we've had very successful discussions. In fact I've been invited to give several talks as a result of people seeing the broader application of the theory as I've explained it.

But it set me to ponder if I shouldn't be using some different terminology to call this theory. I still want to convey in the name that the architecture is layered (strategic decisions at the upper layer, operational decisions at the lowest layer) and that it does involve cybernetic principles (control theory). But it also needs to emphasize that the components of decision making are distributed and semi-autonomous within the framework of their decision domains (e.g. tactical decision makers have responsibility and authority to make tactical decisions without a strategic layer micro-managing them). Actually it would be nice to somehow incorporate the idea that the distributed architecture is essential to the health of the system by providing resilience and backup capabilities if lines of communication are temporarily lost (like that in the design of the Internet).

So I am contemplating a new name for hierarchical control theory that avoids the old implications of those two terms while preserving the integrity of the theory. I don't want to put people off by using terms they have a preconceived bad feeling about. Since I have seen people who reacted to my original terms change their attitudes once I explained the concepts more fully, I am thinking that people don't have any deep objections to the notions of layered decisions systems (after all we are all part of such organizations and accept the division of decision-making labor all of the time) as long as they realize I am not suggesting that the world be governed by dictatorship.

I could use a little help with this. I will be contemplating it over the next few days of travel. But I thought I would throw the challenge out there to see if any of you have some insights to contribute. I'd love to hear your ideas.

I will be getting back home in a few days. But unfortunately I will almost immediately turn around and travel again. So for the next month, my postings will be spotty. I do check my e-mail more regularly so if you have some ideas comment or e-mail me.

June 17, 2009

Regulation in the air

What do you get when you design a horse by committee?

Answer: You should at least get a camel, but with this situation you won't even get an ungulate.

Today the Obama administration unveils its 'plan' for regulating the financial industry. This looks like the classical closing of the barn door after the horse is out. They are assuming that the economy, and hence the financial basis of that economy, will recover and we will be once again on the borrow-so-we-can-consume track to Nowheresville. Then, once the economy is running again, these regulations will kick in and all will be rosy thereafter.

Perhaps I should smoke what they are smoking in the White house so that I could stop worrying about outcomes and reality.

The proposed regulations look a lot (to me anyway) like what we call a kluge in engineering. You throw together a bunch of reactive solutions to a set of problems in the hope that they will somehow all work together to keep the 'device' working. Complex systems have all these little pesky variables that need to be 'controlled', so you look at each one individually, figure out how to apply some local 'fix', and then go on to the next problem.

Only what too often happens is that the fix for one problem variable causes something else to go haywire. After all, the whole thing is a system. Things are connected. A local fix to one variable doesn't mean you are fixing the whole system. This is what we know as unintended consequences.

The system that was already in place was a huge kluge. So many different agencies with different authorities and different jurisdictions (except that many overlapped in ways making it hard to know who should do what and to whom!)

Now the proposal is to 'patch it up'. Fix it incrementally. Once again I wonder when wisdom will prevail in these decisions.

I have been writing for nearly two years about the need for a more naturalistic approach to governance, one based on hierarchical management with strategic, coordination (tactical and logistical), and operations controls suitably designed and placed, and I still think that is the only feasible way to approach these problems. Instead we limp along trying desperately to make an already proven failed system work. And it is even the wrong system! I have also been writing about the idiocy of our current approach to financial management, banking, liquidity markets, and the like. So now, what I see is that we are going to try to make a bad system work better at being bad for mankind's long-term good!

I need a drink!


NOTE TO READERS: I will be traveling over the next several weeks (I get my summers off you know!) so my postings are likely to be spotty at best. I will try to get some writing done and if I get a chance and a connection, I'll post when I can. BTW: My travels involve meeting people who are working along the lines I've been writing about, so it isn't just for fun.

June 10, 2009

What is "sustainability"?

The Magic Word

I have been thinking about this word, sustainability, a lot lately. How could one not? It is used everywhere these days. Sustainable development, sustainable energy, sustainable growth! Everyone, it seems, is on the sustainability bandwagon, and I have been no exception.

I developed a model which I call that sustainability criterion for renewable energy production. The criterion is simple enough, a renewable energy production facility (e.g. solar, wind, etc.) is sustainable only if it produces enough excess energy above that required for economic work to replicate itself before its useful life is ended. Of course this doesn't meant that every solar panel has to somehow reproduce another solar panel every, say, 20 years. What it does mean is that in the aggregate of all renewable energy producers and the physical plants that produce those producers, there has to be enough energy produced to produce the next generation of energy producers. On the whole, then, the combined energy outputs of all renewable sources has to serve the economic work process plus provide energy to run the processes that continue to produce the energy capture and conversion equipment.

Currently solar panels and wind mills/generators are manufactured using existing energy infrastructure which mostly comes from fossil fuels. Eventually, when the fossil fuels are no longer available all of these energy producers will need to supply their own reproduction energy just as biological systems must do. To be sustainable, in the sense that life has sustained itself on this planet for billions of years by capturing more energy than just what was needed for maintenance, our invented energy capture/production equipment will have to do the same.

This is a systems-based definition of sustainability. Virtually every profession and perspective will define the term somewhat differently based on their particular view of things. For example, a sustainable business model will reflect the values and beliefs held by capitalists who foresee sales and profits going on and on into the far future. You know, like General Motors! I've even lately heard the term used in the context of education — sustainable education invokes the notion that we can keep the machinery of school-based education (teachers and students) going on forever, with good 'outcomes'.

'Sustainable' has become one of those words that can mean pretty much whatever we want it to depending on who is using it and under what context they're doing so. Too many of these implied meanings seem contradictory at times. At some point it becomes a meaningless word.

The dictionary definition basically says that it means to support or keep going. No real time frame is mentioned. I think most people apply this general concept to whatever is being claimed is sustainable. We'll keep the business going. We'll keep the education system going. And so on.

But there is also a hint of the notion that we won't be able to keep the business going unless we do something special to the model (process) that makes it sustainable. We need to change something about education in order that it becomes sustainable. Our energy systems and economy need to be altered so as to be sustainable long into the future. And that, it seems to me, is where things get pretty fuzzy.

I'd suggest we take the systems perspective on this issue. In this approach we view that which is to be sustained as a process. It has boundaries through which inputs and outputs travel. It gets energy, materials, and information from its environment and pumps out heat and wastes and 'products'. In most cases the question resolves to: "can this process continue to pump out that product as long into the future as we wish?" From this perspective it is clear that three things need to be settled before an answer can be gotten. First, the inputs are resources and we need to know if there are essentially endless supplies of these. Second, are the internal workings of the process such that the ratio of product to waste (and energy to heat) is maintainable for all time? Are there possibly flaws in the inner workings that will cause a steady degradation of output over time? Third, will the environment continue to carry off the product(s) and wastes so that they do not build up and clog the flow through?

This may seem like an oversimplification of the whole problem, but it is only a matter of accounting and measuring in reasonable units of time. Every process has these characteristics even if there are millions of inputs and outputs; even if the inner workings are mind bogglingly complex and stochastic. All of that may make the question harder to answer, but it does not alter the fact that an answer is possible. And, necessary.

Several things can impact the long-term sustainability of a process. If the resources are finite then the draw down of them clearly makes the process unsustainable. In some cases, alternative inputs might be substituted, but if they too are finite then this just delays the inevitable. If the process is one that grows, then several things can go wrong. The growth itself may involve slight errors in replicating key sub-processes causing the internal workings to go awry. If the rate of influx of even an infinite resource is fixed then at some point the growth will outstrip the resource input and the system will neither be able to continue to grow, nor will it be able to have any kind of margin of error, so to speak, should something go wrong. A related problem is if the growth of a process means an increase in product/wastes output relative to the absorbing rate of the environment then the process can be choked in its own output.

If we take this systems approach to characterizing the meaning of sustainability then it becomes clear that claims of sustainable this or sustainable that need to be verified by demonstrating that all of the factors above are met. This will take research, careful observation, careful measurements, and careful use of language! Of course the bandwagon is rolling already. The word, like the word "green" has taken on a life of its own devoid of any thoughtfulness and so it is unlikely that the powers that be will insist on some kind of standard usage that includes validation of claims made. Sustainability is a fad, so the likelihood that it will be a terribly useful guide to policy decisions is rather small. Just label something as sustainable and everyone will applaud.

Of course, in the really long perspective nothing is sustainable! If sustainable means keeping something the same forever (or a really long time) it is actually an unachievable status in the real world. Everything is changing and evolving. I mentioned that life has sustained itself through the trick of capturing more energy than it needs to just maintain. That is how it grows. But the life on Earth today is vastly different from life a half billion years ago. What has endured is the energy flow through driving the internal workings. Those, in turn have been subject to copy errors and because all processes (cells, for example) are embedded in complicated environments that put stresses on them, they are subject to selection for those errors that happily confer some advantage. Life is sustained as long as energy flows, but species, and higher taxonomic categories as well, are not sustainable. Indeed they should not be sustainable in the very long run.

Our current social systems, our economic and political models, even our organizational forms and family units, are presently undergoing huge stresses from an environment we ironically had a great deal to do with creating. Nothing that we have or are is truly sustainable. Everything, including us, will change or go extinct in the long run. And the long run may not be as long as most of us think.

We cannot sustain our current version of social order and economic activity. We look for ways to fix the inherent flaws (like increasing regulation over capital markets) to make what we do now sustainable. But it is largely a vain effort. We are all inherently conservatives who want the world we have known to stay the same. We want to go on building so-called wealth and having kids to give it to. We want everything to be as it was for our lives. We believe our experiences were valid and should be sustained for all time. But we are wrong.

We should not be looking to sustain what we have, just for the sake of keeping it going. We should look for ways to stabilize the parts that work, to buy time and keep the change from being overly destructive. But we need to embrace evolution. We need to let go of institutions that are dilapidated, that are actually causing us more pain than good. What we need to do is look at our processes as described above and make wise decisions about resource flows based on what is and is not renewable. We need to evaluate the internal workings, our economic models and our population size, relative to both the resource issues and the piling up of wastes at our feet and in our water.

Life abides. It is sustainable. Processes change. We should recognize this and live by it. We should not believe that we are going to keep everything exactly the same for the indefinite future. That doesn't mean it is OK to be a destructive force or cause damaging changes (as with our over production of CO2). But it does mean we have to think through our institutions, our processes and our values guided by nature's design and be able to change those as seems wise, rather than slavishly follow some vague concept called sustainability out of a foolish desire to preserve a status quo. Right now people are wasting valuable time trying to figure out how we can generate liquid fuels out of vegetation in order to keep driving our cars. They talk about sustainable fuel production trying to make the idea of maintaining our lifestyles seem reasonable. They want to build giant solar arrays that will rob the Ecos of some of its fair share of light so that we can maintain our consumption of electricity (indeed without addressing the population growth this is more than just maintenance). Human life, in this mode of thinking, is not sustainable. And if we persist, neither might be a livable planet.

June 03, 2009

A Sapient Society - Reflections

Upon Reflection

On Monday I posted a wild idea for a sapient society, actually a sort of architectural framework for how a society of any scale might be functionally organized to reflect a human-centered yet Ecos-balanced approach to living. At the time I thought this was sort of radical, but then on reflection I realized that this organization is exactly what we evolved in the first place!

Ancient tribes of humans had something of this architecture in their structure. The core has always been the collective knowledge of generations and the wisdom of the elders. Certain individuals performed duties of governance, education, communications, etc. And most everybody participated in the operational functions of living, collecting food, wood, constructing shelters, etc. In other words, we humans have always been constructed to work in social structures like this. Large (120-150 people) or small (20-30 people), tribes have been the social and cultural context for human evolution for a really long time.

We just kind of screwed up when agriculture allowed us to start modifying this basic plan and growing our social units beyond a comfortable size.

No one was to blame really. It wasn't anyone's fault that we didn't have the foresight to see the kind of problems that would emerge from restructuring our normal social organization in order to more efficiently accommodate the needs of a farming life. We are, after all, adaptive. Agriculture put emphasis on a different set of skills from tribal living. The knowledge core (my university of noesis) had to become much more focused on specialization. Schools and trade guilds were invented to fulfill the disciplinarian role of education, to make specialists for efficiency purposes. The stored knowledge and wisdom became oriented toward seasonal time scales. Governance started to rely more heavily on a top-down autocratic kind of command and control rather than guidance.

What was missing was knowledge about ourselves, about our humanness. Early civilization was built on the best guesses anyone could make about how to best organize. All of these civilizations were 'self-organizing' with whatever knowledge of human nature seemed available. And, too, don't forget that a lot of causal explanation for human nature and the way the world worked was based on the belief in unseen spirits and gods. Let's face it, we were pretty ignorant about an awful lot having to do with our own natures. What developed was a kluge of organization, a Rube Goldberg design working with the best tools we had at the time. That included slavery and war. That included giving in to materialism (remember we evolved in an environment of scarcity, so when technology started producing plenty we got greedy) and creating unnecessary opulence. We created kings and priests and generals and overlords.

Deep in the human psyche we have always had the desire to organize for mutual support and cooperation. All of our failed and semi-successful attempts to set up commerce and a polity have, at root, been attempts to embody the utopian ideal of the tribal organization.

Things just got too big and too complicated before we really understood. All of our 'isms' and 'ists' are nothing more than groping, sometimes desperate, searches for the way back to humanity. Socialism isn't bad. Capitalism isn't bad. Even fascism isn't inherently bad in the sense that it seeks organization around a 'knowledge' core. The problem with all of them is that those cores (state control, free markets, and their various combinations with a 'ruling class') were not based on wisdom and knowledge/understanding of the larger meaning of human existence. The state was created in a vain attempt to support the individuals but ended up turning humans into machines and instruments.

I'm not calling for anything really new in the 'new social order'. I'm calling for something very old, very primordial in human consciousness. The only thing new is a better (though hardly complete) understanding of what it means to be human. We now understand that we are not angels or separate from nature, but an integral part of the grand evolutionary story. We're just part of the latest chapter. And we have our faults and foibles as cognitive creatures just as any species has its weaknesses when it comes to natural selection. We now know that we screwed up when we put wisdom on the back burner in favor of material wealth. But we also know we did it out of ignorance and can forgive ourselves.

That is, we can forgive ourselves if we have learned anything from our mistakes and resolve to correct those mistakes. That is almost certainly the only way we will win forgiveness from nature.

Can we devise new tribes? Can we organize new social arrangements along the lines I've outlined? Are there among us those who can live human lives recognizing a core of wisdom and knowledge and understanding as the organizing principle? Can we begin, in some small ways to recapture our humanity without giving up appropriate technology (like communications)? Or am I still just a dreamer of utopia?

June 01, 2009

A Sapient Society

A Whole New Social Order

After the Fall

Our current social order is not sustainable. Our economic system is based on a false set of premises — that we can extract all we want from the environment, pump all the waste we want into the environment, and all make our wealth by speculating with currency tokens. And all of this without any consequence other than that we are all enjoying more material wealth. Our political and moral positions admit that our societies must grow both in numbers of persons and in terms of how much consumption each person accounts for.

This is a monstrous lie. The world is finite. And we, as a part of the world, have reached, nay exceeded, our fair share of space and resources. Fairness, here, means that our existence does not threaten the existence of the vast majority of the biota. As things stand now, our existence, and the way we insist on living, has triggered the sixth great extinction event.

What is ironic about this is that we are almost certainly one of the species that is threatened since our existence actually does depend on the existence of the biota as it has been for the last many millions of years. And we are destroying much of that biota. Our actions have set in motion slow but inexorable forces that will accelerate the degradation of the natural world as time goes on.

But that will take many centuries, maybe even millennia to work out. What will actually happen very much sooner is that we will loose our capacity to do the kind of economic work that has been the hallmark of modern civilization and upon which our civilization utterly depends. Our world, even the less developed nations, run on fossil fuels that provide the most compact source of high power that mankind has yet exploited [NOTE: nuclear fission might be considered more compact, but its uses are primarily stationary and is still restricted to a very small percentage of the total energy consumed in the world.] And the net power availability of fossil fuels is starting to decline. For oil it is declining at an alarming rate and oil is the king pin energy source since it takes diesel fuel, for example, to mine and transport coal. Hence, all fossil fuel energy sources will go into decline even though there will still be lots of fossil fuels left in underground!

Our current form of social organization, our forms of governance, our economic processes, and our approaches to education of the younger generations cannot stand for much longer. We are on the verge of a social collapse and if I had to guess I would say within the next decade. Our world order is in a chaotic state and in such a state anything can happen. Even a slight event can trigger a complete phase transition. And no particular path to the bottom is predictable, only that the collapse will take us to the bottom.

For myself I maintain an optimism that lets me think the collapse will not be so catastrophic that mankind will destroy itself completely, say in a nuclear winter scenario. I do think very many helpless humans will suffer horrendous deaths from all manner of catastrophe, but there will also be survivors, even areas of the world where some small semblance of civility will remain. Indeed, those wise enough to foresee this may make special preparations (I'm not necessarily talking the typical survivalist story here).

If so, we will need to consider a new social order upon which to build a new society that may live in balance within the Ecos.

An Architecture for Social Structure

A human centered social structure

What we seem to have forgotten in our haste to create physical nirvana is that we are human beings and not just pieces of a giant wealth making machine. The latter is something that can easily ignore the rest of the Ecos and destroy nature in the name of progress without care. But if we remember that at the center of our human endeavors are real human beings who are not just cogs in a wheel but living beings that touch and interact with nature, indeed need nature in order to survive, we may become more human-centered. And human-centeredness doesn't mean hubris. It means we value ourselves as living, feeling, thinking beings first while still recognizing that all of those qualities obtain from being a part of the Ecos, not separate from it.

The key insight into how society might be arranged so as to optimize the human presence in this world is that we as a species are a product of the tripartite co-evolution of individual minds (development and learning), genetic pools, and group culture. We, as individuals, are a product of our genetic inheritance, our cultural inheritance, and our knowledge inheritance — our conceptual constructions or mental models.

An individual human being is an incredibly adaptive system, one whose behaviors can change and cover a wide range of responses to environmental change. The human capacity to learn is at the heart of our future. So, too, our societies have an inherent capacity for adaptation even if more sluggish than individual adaptation. Institutions are stable over multiple generations because they are more conservative in terms of organizational learning and changing as the environment changes. For most of human history this has been a strength. Where human individuals came and went, institutions endured, changing only slowly. In the quickened pace of our current social milieu this tendency may have become a liability, however.

Finally, with the advent of our understanding of the mechanisms of genetics and epigenetic controls we are beginning to grasp the nature of evolutionary adaptation, that which takes the longest time scale for change. And we have discovered that it is feasible (at least it appears to be so) that we can directly intervene in the genetic adaptation process to meet the challenges of this rapidly changing world.

We stand on the verge of reconciling these three very different time domains of adaptation in order to coordinate the future potential of human kind in the Ecos.

A society that is centered on the greatest human strength would have as its core value learning and adaptation even while maintaining a framework of time-proven knowledge. This is a succinct description of a university.

The university is a confluence of schools, laboratories and libraries where knowledge is gained, modified as evidence dictates, is taught to the younger generations, and is stored and maintained for ready retrieval upon need. A university is not just a "social construct". It is a natural extension of the human brain and mind. It is the societal mind, having all of the functions and qualities of an extended mind, along with the mechanical means to obtain, store, retrieve, and process knowledge for the good of the collective. It is, or should be, the seat of wisdom and understanding and open to all who seek that understanding.

A university of noesis (mind and knowledge) would form the core structure for a sapient society (Fig. 1). Rather than our current conceptualization of a government, 'running things', the university would be the guide for how best to coordinate the organization of the rest of the social structure. The governing board of the university would be a council of wise elders, not chosen by democratic vote, but by lifelong evidence of growing wisdom and moral stability. They would be selected as in a meritocracy with no set number of members and a rotating chairmanship. The university would be the strategic mind of the society. Not a central planner (as so many too often confuse this form of governance with the failed model of Soviet bureaucracy), but a strategic vision setting body, and all that that implies.

NewSocialOrder

Figure 1. An architecture for a new social order. The University of Noesis is the core as described in the text. It would include the strategic element of a hierarchical, distributed control governance. The next outer shell contains the tactical and logistical functions for the entire society. Note that aesthetics, the appreciation of beauty, and the enjoyment systems are a part of this layer as these are as important as communications and education to the support and growth of every member of the society. The outer shell contains the operational systems that keep the society well and developing internally. The exergy and food systems are of primary importance but interfaces for other social systems and the rest of the Ecos are also part of this shell. The system is not closed, but the inflows and outflows of matter and other people are kept in balance.


The principle idea in Fig. 1 is that a social system must naturally incorporate a hierarchical and distributed control subsystem for all of its essential activities. This is accomplished naturally with the concentric rings shown in the figure. The outer ring contains the operational level activities that make life possible and provide for the material wealth the society needs. The middle ring provides the coordination control (logistical and tactical support) to keep the society operating smoothly and to provide rapid adaptive responses to changes in the overall environment (for example defense includes repairing storm damage). The inner core captures the highest value of human life — knowing and understanding — for the individual in the context of the society. The highest purpose of this social architecture is that all members have access to all knowledge that they might desire and that their lives are devoted primarily to self-actualization. The education and communications subsystems are devoted to ensuring all citizens as much access as they desire to the core.

The only cost one has to pay to be a member of society is to perform work as needed to maintain the structure. The bulk of 'jobs' will most likely fall under the exergy and food production categories. But any job that helps to maintain the structure so that energy flow is used most wisely (e.g. in helping construct energy efficient housing) counts. And as long as energy flows, everything else is free! Of course in a large enough grouping of such a social unit, some form of money token may be used to facilitate trade, but the monetary units would be based on exergy units and so would not become a basis for speculation or overvaluation.

Feasible????

As I am sure many of you are now saying to yourself, 'but this is just utopianism, this is nothing more than a hippy commune!' Well, I'd like to believe it is a little more sophisticated than that. And I think it employs a good deal more subtlety in terms of its governance and economic underpinnings than your run-of-the-mill commune. For example, this is advanced not just as a model of a small community (though that it certainly is) but, by extension in scale it is a model for larger, indeed, globlal community organization. Note the import/export/immigration/emigration aspects. These allow any number of small communities to link up with one another and to form aggregate concentric shell-organized meta-societies. The model applies at all scales because it is based on distributed hierarchical control as I have described it elsewhere.

And do not worry that I have gone off the deep end in dreaming. I recognize that what I have just described (and you have to recognize that this is in the context of all my previous writing) is completely infeasible because of one overriding factor — human nature. Or rather, the low sapient nature of our current species. We, in general, are simply not wise enough to form these kinds of communities, or communities of communities (as with so many of my concepts this architecture is self-similar at multiple scales!!!). If we were, it would already be done!

No, I do not expect that anyone will rush out and try to set up such a community in the wilderness somewhere with the dream that they will create utopia. What I want to do is point out that under the right conditions of human consciousness and eusapience I think this organization might actually be the natural consequence of societal living. If humanity were to evolve into a more sapient creature, I suspect this kind of social organization would be the norm.

Rather I offer it as a vision of what could be at some distant future time, after the fall of our current social order, and after evolution has had a chance to select for greater sapience among the survivors. One possible scenario might have it that some highly sapient individuals will seek one another out sometime before the fall and organize a means of ensuring their own survival. This could lead to a very interesting evolutionary bottleneck phenomenon whereby the gene pool of the survivors would have greater representation of whatever genetic (or epigenetic) factors are involved in sapience inheritance. Wishful thinking? Probably. Feasible? Possibly.

I can hope, can't I?

May 30, 2009

Me on the Internet radio!

Yesterday I did an interview on the Zapata George show. George is a down-to-earth fellow who provides financial advice related to the fossil fuel industry and energy in general. He is a geologist/engineer who's motto is "No Bull". His co-host, Duane Chandler and George interviewed me regarding my series on "Steps to an energy solution in this blog (go to the Biophysical Economics category to see the series). You can listen to the interview at: Zapata-George Radio. The release was this morning (5/30/09).

May 26, 2009

What's the backup plan then?

The government is putting several trillions of dollars into the economy in an attempt to restart the borrow-spend-consume business as usual. Never mind that most of that money is borrowed (American citizens are loathe to pay taxes that would help pay for what they want done). Well, actually, we should mind a lot about that. But we are bailing out the automakers on the theory that once they start selling cars again they will pay us back. We are bailing out the banks and trying to get buyers to take the bad assets in hopes that one day they turn into good assets. We're not doing much for the common worker out of a job, but that might come too if we can ever figure out what sorts of jobs we can create out of whole cloth. According to Keynesian theory these bailouts ought to do the trick and we'll be back on track. Two years from now when we are playing our favorite tunes on the newest iPodTM we'll just remember the worst economic downturn since the 1930s as an unpleasant reminder to watch for market bubbles and greedy crooks. And then we'll just go on consuming our hearts out.

But what happens if the plan doesn't work? I know. I've heard that there are green shoots here and there, glimmers of hope. Things aren't getting bad quite as fast as they were a month ago — that is if you look in the right direction and ignore the other signs. All of that liquidity (printed money) that is being pumped into the financial system should be easing up credit. So why aren't people splurging on borrowing to have that new flat panel humongous TV? The number of home sales were not as bad as previous months, but of course they are the ones being bought at auction, the foreclosures. The average house price is still heading south.

Let's be generous and call it a PLAN. Even if it does succeed in easing the rate of economic decline a bit, for a while, I suspect that the fundamentals I'm looking at will trump everything else and we will see the long term trend as down, down, down. What I want to know is what do Geithner and Summers have as a backup plan? What happens when the treasury is empty, the stimulus has run its course, and the banks are still stuck with tons of toxic assets? Then what? You usually don't go into battle without a backup plan.

Let's think about a likely scenario. The automakers fail to pull out of bankruptcy. Even so thousands of auto workers are going to lose their jobs. And then thousands more parts and services workers will lose their jobs. There are already dire warnings of many industries downsizing in the coming months. In an 'ordinary' recession joblessness is a trailing indicator, sort of the last measurable that starts to climb when the economy recovers. But this is no ordinary recession.

Once workers in the primary sectors, manufacturing (what is left of it), financial and insurance services, and so on, start losing their jobs they stop being consumers. They stop buying. Now, all of a sudden you have closures of retail and distributors. Service sector jobs start dropping like flies in DDT. We reach unemployment numbers reminiscent of the worst of the Great Depression. All of those people who don't work can't buy stuff, which is how our economy is supposed to work. You work for a wage, you buy stuff that other people make or sell and they are working for their wages. Some of them even buy your stuff so you can keep on selling. Then, all at once, nobody is buying. The consumer based economy is over, gone, kaput.

And in the meantime the US has gone bankrupt. Americans don't buy from foreign companies who have to lay off their workers. The foreign governments aren't happy about it and call their loans. Except there is nothing to call. Maybe we printed lots of money, but it is worthless paper. Nothing is backing it but an empty promise.

The globalization merry-go-round comes to a screeching halt.

If that were the end of the story we might imagine that, OK, this is the Greater Depression and someday, maybe in a couple of decades, we will finally pull out of it. Consumer confidence will return (BTW: whenever economists can't explain why consumers aren't buying they chalk it up to consumers not having confidence in the economy — if only they would change their attitudes everything would be hunky dory) and the free market economy will start churning away again. But that isn't the end of the story.

This bears repeating and repeating until someone upstairs finally gets it. The economy runs on energy flow. That's it, plain and simple. And right now we are running out of usable energy. The only currency that matters is the units of usable energy directed at producing and delivering food and other necessities. The only 'money' that matters is that which can be traded in for heating and clothing and housing, all of which require quite a lot of energy to produce. Energy, not credit, not cash money, not any other kind of unit of value, is the stuff that everybody needs to survive. Just stop eating (food is your body's energy) and you will die. Eat less than you need to keep going and you will starve eventually. That is exactly the same for our society as a whole. Our economy eats fossil fuels with a little help from nuclear, hydroelectric, and a smattering of alternative sources. If there is less to eat then the economy starves.

Think of a predator hunting for scarce prey. The hunter uses up energy in the hunt. The hunt has to be so successful that it gets back all that it invested in the hunt plus additional energy to repair tissue damage, grow if not mature, and reproduce if possible. If the prey are scarce then the hunter needs to increase its range and time in the hunt. At some level of scarcity, the hunter simply cannot find enough food to sustain itself and it will starve, even though there are still prey out there in the territory!

Presumably what made humans so successful as hunters was that they always had a backup plan for when game got scarce. They were omnivores so they could eat a wide variety of plants and animals (even insects). And there was always the option of moving to a new territory. The key to exercising that latter option was recognizing in plenty of time that the game were getting scarcer and that triggered them implementing their backup plan. They moved on before it was too late.

But I haven't heard anything at all about a backup plan for what happens when our energy gets really scarce. I haven't heard anything mentioned about what to do if the stimulus package doesn't perform as advertised. There is some vague notion that we will invest in sustainable energy and create 'green' jobs that will stimulate and enliven our economy. Lots of optimistic talk, lots of speculation, lots of hope (especially in technology), but no real backup plan. For example once all that trillions of stimulus is gone where will we get the bucks to invest in that ethereal technology that will create all those green jobs? Do you suppose China is going to lend it to us?

Well, if you have been reading my blogs for a while you know I haven't been spending my time just complaining. I have been thinking a lot about what actions will need to be taken when we're broke and still need to fix the energy problem. I have given a lot of thought to governance and organization. I have a plan for how we can bootstrap our energy infrastructure to protect our ability to provide the basics. The plan is a triage. It won't go over well to a country of spoiled brats. It will involve considerable sacrifice and a lot of hard manual labor. It will also involve planned reduction in population over time and in the most humane ways possible. No one is going to like it! Which is why no politician would have the guts to promote it.

But we have shot our wad, as they say. We've invested in revitalizing a lost cause and we are going to be absolutely broke because of it. And without a backup plan there is going to be trouble in the streets. Only after a significant number of folk realize this will they be ready to open their minds to facts and reason. At least, let's hope so.