May the New Year Bring Enlightenment

A little more than an hour before ringing in the New Year. The fireworks are already popping off.

Wishing everyone the best possible under the circumstances of reality. My intuition tells me this new year will bring something akin to enlightenment for a large portion of the population. The signal-to-noise ratio regarding the behavior of fossil fuel production will get high enough that we should begin to see concepts like peak oil start to dominate the new cycles even in the MSM. The talking heads are going to find it hard to ignore. Just as there is finally the dawning of realization about climate change among government and media, even among republicans though they ardently wish it not to be caused by the human economy, there will be a similar awakening regarding the critical role of net energy and the economy. They are all linked and the lines connecting the dots are going to start showing. I fully expect the republicans (and libertarians) to persist in their beliefs that a growth-oriented free market capitalist economy is the solution to all ills. But those able to be enlightened should start to see the light.

Even so, I suspect there will be little in the way of action. The reason is very simple. There is nothing anyone can actually do about it! No effort at crash programs, no amount of money thrown at it (and there really isn't any money to throw at it!), no amount of hope is going to move the line. The scale of the problem is simply  too big now. We will have less real wealth production each year and there will be more climate calamities to deal with, and there will be more mouths to feed. At some point in the coming decade we will witness the clear trend in the decline of civilization as we have known it. Already there is talk of "third-world America" but the talking heads still believe it has come about simply because of greedy selfish bankers, or they blame a weak president. They have yet not seen the true underlying cause of decay (most of them probably have no idea what the Second Law of Thermodynamics is).

Welcome to the future. As Yogi Berra once said, "...the future ain't what it used to be."

For those wise enough to attend to the signals, find your positive way forward. Even in the decline of this consumerist civilization there can still be progress in the human spirit. Just hope for the right things.

Peace.

Comments

[mikkel]

George, how are your community efforts going? There are starting to be several biophysics inspired ecovillages that are popping up that look up your alley. I hope things are well.

[Phil Henshaw]

Me... I still fail to comprehend why virtually no one seems to understand the concept of science.

When you can't find the answers to the questions you want answered, hey, there's an interesting way to "fill your time". Just turn to casting about for questions that CAN BE. You could treat it sort of as a "warm up exercise", to help get your bearings... before making wild guesses.

What I observe is people making wild guesses first, and then casting about for clear evidence they're wrong, and usually (conveniently) never finding it. I suppose sometimes you have to do that, but why do it to the exclusion of finding questions with real answers?

[`barbara]

Wise word and I believe an accurate reading of our present status -- barbara

[Phil Henshaw]

To comment directly on your post, they're good thoughts. I think, though, what we DO have the time, and energy, and money, to do is to learn from the situation... (unlike the survivors of the last many complex human societies that failed to learn from the error, when their world's failed for apparently much the same causes).

So, I don't agree that: "There is nothing anyone can actually do about it!". I think learning is the great doing of all complex systems, and there's a quite substantial victory to be snatched from the jaws of defeat here.

That bit of new insight into it might first appear to be a rather small thing. If it't happens to coincide with rather small thing that prevents growth systems from maturing into stable long-lived ecologies... well, then that might be a rather big thing. There is, however, some real learning to do in discovering that.

In part it involves the difficult step for people of learning how to study the animated heterogeneous processes of nature (i.e. *natural* systems), and differentiate them from our thinking about them. Nature and our conceptualizations are essentially two entirely separate realities, the form and workings of each being so remarkably different.

It's easy with the right questioning attitude and not without it. It's not much more different than learning you have been living in someone else's house. Like the sorcerer's apprentice you need to discover what things are for, rather than just suppose they'll work for whatever you want.

When we do that, accept that nature doesn't revolve around our thinking as people so habitually like to draw it, I think we'll start finding the paths we need.

[Robin Datta]

"I still fail to comprehend why virtually no one seems to understand the concept of science."

As John Michael Greer has explained over several posts to his blog The Archdruid Report , and in his book The Long Descent, socio-cultural biases affect one's perception.

The myths (religious and cultural stories) told over generations shape our minds. Once set, anything poured into this receptacle takes the shape of our receptacle: be they concepts or empirical facts, they are perceived in accordance with our pre-set biases. This can be corrected when the force of evidence shatters the receptacle: depending on the milieu, it may result in academic acclaim or political revolution.

[Florifulgurator]

Happy new year!

Hope for progress in the human spirit isn't unfounded. More and more people will necessarily encounter a reality beyond their consumerist egoes and economic myths. (E.g. some Australians will right now start asking about that climate thing. Just like the Russians after last year's fires.)

[George Mobus]

Mikkel,

I had been pursuing some financial support that fell through. So back to square one for me personally. But, as you say, many such communities are springing up and some of those are likely to be successful. My hopes are with humanity.

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barbara,

Thanks and welcome aboard.

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Phil,

You seem to be expressing optimism that we will be able to solve "the problems" in some fashion. Does this mean that solutions can be found to prevent major calamity to our current population? I'm reasonably sure you don't mean saving business as usual. How do you account for the scales and interconnections between the challenging factors, e.g. declining net energy and climate change. What are the solutions that you believe we can learn?
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Robin,

I wonder too what Phil means by "virtually no one seems to understand the concept of science." Perhaps he can elaborate.

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Flor,

Yes, I agree. But will it then be too late to effectively change?

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George