Is There Hope?

There is Always Hope

If that write-in campaign that some readers suggested a while back were to work, and I was elected president, I would hire my gym buddy (ellipticals) Rudy to walk behind me whispering in my ear, “Remember, thou art mortal!” He does his best to keep me humble and this is a good thing. One of his most common complaints about this blog, and my writing, is that I usually finish my doom-and-gloom scenarios without a last message of hope. Rudy has read many of the peak oil, collapse, and other end of civilization as we know it (EOCAWKI) books and he notes that every other author generally ends their work with something like, “...if only the powers that be would wake up and take action, we could fix these problems”, or “...if you do such and thus, you will be one of the survivors.” Essentially the modus operandi is to leave people with the hope that something could be done (and the authors often provide the solutions, if only...).

To quote Rudy, “You got to leave them with hope!” OK Rudy here is my leaving them with hope.

Hope for What?

The mainstream hope is for what is called “business as usual” or BAU. Let's face it, BAU is killing this planet (or at very least leading to the sixth great extinction event). Should we really hope that our American way of life is not only non-negotiable (as per Dick Cheney) but really deserves to be saved? If a new miraculous energy production method were found (imagine nuclear fusion in a football sized reactor able to power 10,000 homes!) and we managed to bring it up to scale in time to avoid the worst shocks of fossil fuel peaking, would the Ecos be better off? In truth, would humanity be better off, in the long run? Consider that such a miraculous power source could be used to scrub CO₂ from the atmosphere. That would be great, wouldn't it? But also consider that such a power source would allow us humans to grow in numbers and consumption of natural resources even more. Would that be good? Also, all of that energy consumed in work (making our lives “better”) would add to the heat load of the planet directly. We wouldn't be faced with global warming due to the greenhouse effect, but by directly injecting heat into the atmosphere from all of our machines and abodes. Somehow the Second Law of Thermodynamics seems to win no matter what!

Hope for BAU is hope for not being inconvenienced in this lifetime. Little else. It is not hope for the future of humanity.

Perhaps, then, we should hope to save the bulk of the current population. Perhaps we can discover genetic modifications to food plants and biofuel plants that can at least provide us with the basic needs of our species (living in non-tropic climes) so that even if we all end up poorer, we will be able to survive and live reasonable lives. We might miss our TVs and cable, our NASCAR Sundays and our Big Macs. But we will be able to keep the population stable and learn how to live within our physical means. The only problem is that we are still breeding and producing hungry mouths to feed. Even if everyone lived at a much reduced consumption level there are still far too many of us to live off of real-time solar energy resources alone. We would all end up far poorer than most people can imagine unless they've been to Somalia.

Hope for saving the population is hope for far more pain and suffering than can be imagined.

Well, what about hope for humanity in the form of at least saving some portion of the species so that our kind can go on? Surely some remnants of Homo sapiens can survive and be ready to produce a new civilization based on different principles. We can surely hold out hope that our species will survive whatever future traumas await us. Indeed some remnant must survive. Only if it is composed of the average humans from our current population they will likely just behave like humans do now. They will make all the same mistakes our current clever but unwise species have made. Homo sapiens are adaptive and a surviving population chosen, more or less randomly, from the current population would simply continue to act as we have acted, selfishly and with no understanding of the larger scope consequences of our local, short-term actions. As adaptable as our species is, I suspect that given the same opportunities (finding energy sources, say) they would simply replicate the same mistakes we have made as a species with cleverness.

Hope for saving a remnant of the current species is hope that we will make the same mistakes all over again.

But, hope for the genus, that is different. I have hope that some form of Homo does, in fact, survive and adapt to the future world. I just don't think it should be sapiens. Sapiens, after all, are not really particularly sapient! At least the average member of our species does not appear to have a sufficient level of sapience to have a more global scope of understanding^*. They do not really grasp the systemic nature of our world to the point of understanding the global and long-term consequences of their local current actions. Why they don't is perfectly understandable. We evolved in a world where that grasp was not really necessary. We are what we are. But, unfortunately, we are also extremely clever beasts who have so altered the physical world (serious geologists want to call this period the Anthropocene to recognize the geological consequences of the existence of human beings) that we have created an environment that demands exactly that kind of scope in thinking in order to adapt to the environment. In other words we have created the very conditions that contribute to the selection of necessary traits for greater sapience! We have created the selection forces that will work against sapiens and for a more sapient species in the future.

Hope for the genus is hope that we can become better beings.

My hope is that we current beings will be just sapient enough to recognize the ways of evolution. Even in our population of mere average sapiens there are variations in the gene pool that produce much greater sapience in a few individuals. If we were to ensure the survival of those individuals through the coming turmoil (as best we could - no guarantees!) then the future generations of humans would be starting from a higher baseline of sapience and would, I suspect, be more likely to manage adaptation to the new world. And, more importantly, our descendents would be positioned to make better choices in that future world because their capacity to acquire wisdom will be much greater, on average, than is the case presently for the extant population.

There is hope that a distant future form of humanity will survive and even thrive. I have this hope because we less sapient but very clever humans have come to understand how evolution works and can produce seeming improvements in the capabilities of animals. We have come to understand the genetic basis for inheritance of traits and even how to read the genes relative to the particulars of those traits (though this ability is very new and needs development). We have the understanding of how selection of traits works and how to bootstrap selection of a particular trait (as when we do animal breeding).

I have no illusions that our species will adopt an explicit policy for identifying and favoring the few high sapient members of our populations. That would be entertaining a false hope in light of the ample evidence that we are unable to adopt such thinking. As I write this I am imagining all of the people who are going nuts screaming “eugenics, eugenics, evil!” The average brain is unable to rise high enough to get the perspective of what is happening. I accept that, though it does cause me anguish. No my real hope is that somehow those super-sapient individuals will self-recognize and seek out one another's company to form social networks and communities that can and will survive and adapt. My guess is that the super-sapient already surmise the need and intuit the actions. I am only supplying a voice to that implicit judgment.

So there is the hope I have and leave you with. If you suspect that some young person is not just bright, but also has the seeds of higher sapience then encourage them to learn all that they can (particularly systems science!) about the world and what is really happening. Teach them about resilience and adaptability. If they are truly sapient they will learn without much prompting. Help them to meet and associate with other high sapient individuals. Be sapient enough to recognize our own short comings and do not claim greater sapience for yourself (an old Chinese proverb says that if you think you are wise, then you are not!) Above all, have hope that the super-sapient among us will be the ones building a brave new world.

There, now maybe Rudy will stop complaining that I don't leave folks with hope!

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^* My suggestion is that we call our current species Homo calidus, meaning “Man the clever”. We are extremely clever, but not wise, it would appear.

Comments

[How to Start a Small Business]

Of course there is always hope as long as there is life. If people will be hopeful and think that there is a need for us to grow and succeed then there is hope too.
[Moderator edit: Removed commercial URL]

[AlT]

Wow the "how to start aa small business" plugs BAU on george's blog - cool! :)

excellent post george - sapients of all countries unite! :)

the only problem now is to get a litmus test for sapience :)

on the other hand understanding science _is_ s proxy for sapience and a dedication to squeeze out faith and ungrounded hope is an inddication of sapience too

so the process of ssapients organizing is undder way - even if it has not manifested itself yet in a proper organization it has manifested itself in you writing about the idea and many others who share your idea in one form or another even if they employ the language thatdoes not imidiately resembles yours

great post and thanks

[Tom]

Not to be all gloom and doom about it, but with the amount of carbon we're spewing, even if we stopped completely TODAY, it would take thousands of years for the planet to either reabsorb it (unlikely) or balance to a new normal - which may be anti-human life form (way too hot to grow anything edible for starters) for quite a while until the heat dissipates.

We're done. Sapient or not, we've ruined our fishbowl and it's not fixable by us. Now we have to pay for our mistakes. The earth is going to rid itself of us.

After many thousands of years, perhaps single-celled organisms will once again pop up to start the whole process over again. Maybe next time . . .

[George Mobus]

How to,

Of course there is hope where there is life. We call that evolution. The key question is what kind of life will it be? I think Tom (below) would vote for bacteria!

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AIT,

Thank you.

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Tom,

I can understand the sentiments you express, but I don't share the expectation of such a complete reduction of life on this planet, even in the extremes we can expect from climate change.

Things are going to get bad as compared with what we humans have grown used to, to be sure. But we humans have also evolved an unprecedented capacity to adapt to extremes. After all people living in the Arctic circle are living in extreme conditions relative to equatorial Africa where we presumably evolved.

I agree that we humans (not being sapient enough) have created this scenario and that it will stress the biosphere mightily. The sixth major extinction event is most likely underway already. What will follow will produce major and very strong selection forces that will drive evolution in ways we probably can't imagine.

But life is nothing if not resilient. It is capable of adapting and sometimes remarkably quickly. The old view that evolution is only a long-term process taking millions of years is now given way to a realization that some evolutionary events can be quite rapid. So I would not count the genus Homo out quite yet. The species sapiens will definitely be supplanted (indeed needs to be supplanted) just as this species supplanted previous species of Homo and they Australeopithecines. I think the selection pressures from nature will do the trick there. Eusapient people should be able to adapt by virtue of their better brains and cooperative behavior. Poor old mere sapients will succumb to the environment and to each other because they are so unwise and selfish. At least that is my hypothesis and I will stick to it!

I, too, look to the "next time", but I see it as an outgrowth of the current situation rather than a complete re-boot of evolution.

George

[Bruce]

Derrick Jensen: "Beyond Hope".

Frankly, I don’t have much hope. But I think that’s a good thing. Hope is what keeps us chained to the system, the conglomerate of people and ideas and ideals that is causing the destruction of the Earth.

To start, there is the false hope that suddenly somehow the system may inexplicably change. Or technology will save us. Or the Great Mother. Or beings from Alpha Centauri. Or Jesus Christ. Or Santa Claus. All of these false hopes lead to inaction, or at least to ineffectiveness.

. . . We’ve all been taught that hope in some future condition—like hope in some future heaven—is and must be our refuge in current sorrow. I’m sure you remember the story of Pandora. She was given a tightly sealed box and was told never to open it. But, being curious, she did, and out flew plagues, sorrow, and mischief, probably not in that order. Too late she clamped down the lid. Only one thing remained in the box: hope. Hope, the story goes, was the only good the casket held among many evils, and it remains to this day mankind’s sole comfort in misfortune. No mention here of action being a comfort in misfortune, or of actually doing something to alleviate or eliminate one’s misfortune.

The more I understand hope, the more I realize that all along it deserved to be in the box with the plagues, sorrow, and mischief; that it serves the needs of those in power as surely as belief in a distant heaven; that hope is really nothing more than a secular way of keeping us in line.

The twenty premises of "Endgame".

[anonymous]

Hello everyone, before i start things off i would just like to say that i am an 16 year old that has just read what has been stated on this page including some of the comments you have all posted. I am extremely alarmed about the future or whether i will have one at all. So here is my question, i would like to know whether there is anything i can do to ensure or perhaps increase my chances of survival in these extremely volatile times, any and all suggestions are appreciated. Thank you.

[AlT]

@anonymous 16 year old

ONE WORD (and it is not "plastics" :))

LEARN

and as a practical assignment: which movie i referenced when i said "and it is not plastics"?

here are the hints:
it was 1967 movie
the initials for the main mail protagonist are BB
the soundtrack to this movie rose to the top of the charts in 1968
the director for this movie won Academy Award

[anonymous]

@ait im assuming your reffering to george orwells nineteen-eighty four, am i correct?

[anonymous]

@ait actually, i was wrong, i jumped to conclusions when you said "BB" and immediately assumed that it stood for big brother without looking at anything else you said. My apologies. The movie you are actually talking about is The Graduate, directed by Mike Nichols.

[AlT]

@anonymous

you are correct - I was thinking about The Graduate

did you watch it or looked up the clues?

as to the substance of your question: you don't really have to do much except stay alert and keep training your brain to discern how things really _are_ not how others tell you they are

be curious and hungry for knowledge

knowledge is power in general

knowledge of human nature will give you the power to control yourself and others

but most importantly: don't worry about anything - live, act, learn all the lessons from everything you ever do regardless of whether you think it was a mistake or a brilliant move looking back

the future is yours

[anonymous]

@ait I appreciate your response, and yes, i did look up your hints and eventually came to the conclusion that The Graduate was the movie you were thinking about. As for the second part of your post, i am hungry for knowledge, i research a great deal about a variety of topics. Once again, i thank you for imparting your wisdom and knowledge upon me.

[AlT]

@anonymous

don't thank me for wisdom and knowledge - i do not have more than anybody else

i may be as incoherent as all others blabbing nonsense about the topics they know nothing about but think they are the "ultimate truth"

trust your own brain

know that your brain is as good if not better than anybody elses

be suspecious of things that do not jive together

never be tired of digging deeper than anybody else until your own curiosity is completely satisfied

never trust others do your thinking for you - no matter how high in the skky they may appear to everybody else - they are merely mortals with as good of brain as yours

take it upon yourself to understand the space you live in and share this understanding with others from your generation

[anonymous]

@ait I would share my understanding of various issues such as this one with my generation, but i am positive that MOST of my generation would not care, much less show an interest in these topics. They probably wont survive the so called population bottleneck when it arrives. I for one, hope that i am not among those that will perish when it happens.

[AlT]

@anonymous

i trust you do not view this population bottleneck event as something that is scheduled for specific day in the future

it is not at all like that

overpopluation began long time ago - before we even figured out how to use our howls and screams to mean anything

we are all in the same boat

how and when the events become nasty is hard to predict: there is even a chance that it will not happen over your lifetime

all you want is maintain sanity and learn how to control your emotions when things get charged so that you do not get caught in some mindless vilence of the mob

and once you feel strong enough to try your hand at changing how things are done you will seek out people who think like you and together you will act along the evolutionary trajectory

seeking out people who think like you is always important but always keep in mind that people maybe parroting you or each other _without_ deep understanding

when you are connected you feel good and together the chances to survive are much higher

[George Mobus]

Bruce,

Interesting insights. But, I think, limited to what may be true for the current dominant species, Homo sapiens. My hope lies in evolution producing a "better" species (meaning more fit for long-term survival).

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Anon,

I completely understand your sense of angst. Whether 16 or 60 everyone should be paying attention to their emotional response to events in the world and the prospects commanded by the depletion of cheap (and high energy return on energy invested) energy in fossil fuels. Fear is a legitimate emotion to feel when danger looms. But it can either lead to action or paralysis. The key is not let it produce the latter.

In my view there are many routes to "survival" but all depend on adaptability and willingness to take paths less traveled. Let me call your attention to the series I began here: How">http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2011/08/how-might-humanity-survive-a-radically-changing-world.html">How Might Humanity Survive a Radically Changing World? and have continued to develop (you can find them listed under the category of Evolution). I will be continuing the series shortly but there are a number of links that will provide you with the background you may be seeking.

Try to remember that in the end there are no guarantees of anything. The only thing you can rely on is your own wits and a willingness to question the received wisdom (including this!) My only advice is to amplify AIT's advice: learn all that you can about how the world really works (from science, not from speculative sources). That you are even paying attention is a good sign.

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AIT,

Thanks for your concern for Anon's questions.

George