Does it feel like we're waiting for the hammer to fall?

You don't waste no time at all
Don't hear the bell but you answer the call
It comes to you as to us all
We're just waiting
For the hammer to fall

Hammer to fall, Queen

Imagine what could happen if...

The peak of oil production occurred in 2007. Oil production started to decline each year in 2008 by about 3% per year. Then in 2012 it accelerated to 8% per year. Meanwhile, in spite of concerted efforts to develop and deploy many different alternative energy production facilities, the scale of replacement of fossil fuels and the fact that oil is vital to transportation made it a daunting challenge that couldn't meet the demand. People turned to coal in spite of the CO₂ emissions problems with power generation. Coal to gas plants became increasingly expensive to build since much of the energy input to producing the materials and work needed to build them was based on oil. Furthermore the idea of CO₂ capture and sequestration did not work out as hoped. The energy needed to pump CO₂ into deep reservoirs proved too expensive. Thus the emissions of the greenhouse gas increased further aggrevating the global warming problem.

Oil- and coal-based power was needed for producing wind towers and solar cells. More importantly oil was the basis for building and operating oil drilling rigs and platforms. As oil became more scarce, the cost of building the infrastructure to get more oil became too expensive — people finally realized that energy is the basis of money after all. Diminishing energy meant diminishing currency value and costs inflated unbelievably.

Belief in the power of technology faded as people realized that just because something is technically possible doesn't mean it is economically feasible. The exotic elements, like cadmium and gallium, were used to make solar cells more efficient, true enough, but they were rare and grew rarer and more expensive as the energy needed to mine and process them got rarer too. People, grown so used to wowy-zowy technical advances, began to realize that belief in magic was equivalent to believing, without knowing, that technology would somehow come through with solutions. Neither would help. The scale of deployment was simply too great.

Natural gas too went through a peak in production, mainly because the oil that subsidized its infrastructure was similarly affected. Coal mining and delivery became increasingly expensive for exactly the same reason. The method of mountain removal depended heavily on oil inputs to the machinery that made it feasible. As net energy from oil diminished at an increasing rate everything became more expensive in dollar measures. Hence there was less of everything being accomplished.

Food production in modern agriculture depends on energy for three basic things: energy used to produce fertilizer (natural gas is a direct input, but mining potash is also dependent on oil) and insecticides, energy used to pump water, and energy to operate the farm and deliver produce to market. As these energy input costs rose, the volume of farm output declined at about the same rate as the energy declined. The cost of food skyrocketed.

The energy needed to maintain infrastructure became too costly. Necessary repairs let alone producing new facilities could not be afforded. But that was really nothing compared to the increasing impossibility of getting to one's job. Airlines were the first to succumb but all public transportation began to fall apart as fuel prices reached stratospheric levels.

Contraction began to squeeze civilization just at the time that massive climate events were beginning to take their toll. Droughts, storms, floods began to affect increasing numbers of people throughout the world. Desertification in China, India, and Africa dislocated millions of people. Starvation overtook millions more. No continent was unaffected.

And how did people generally react to the hammer falling?

If this scenario plays out: Will billions simply roll over and die for lack of food and water? I imagine many will. Will many rebel or invade other areas in an attempt to get the food and water they need to survive? I imagine very many will. Will civilization survive? Under this scenario, I imagine not, at least not in anything resembling what we are used to today.

Is this a realistic scenario? Unfortunately I think it is. Remembering that we live in a holistic system with multiple positive feedbacks it is not difficult to see a runaway process once energy starts to decline. The main unknown is how our species will react to the reality of contraction. Will, for example, the so-called rich be willing to give up their fortunes to subsidize (buy scarce oil) food for the poor? Bill Gates is giving away millions to conquer malaria and HIV in Africa. Would he be willing to give away billions to feed and transport people out of the worst climate change-affected areas? Would we use our military to do the job?

This scenario will sound implausible to many of you. And that is a lingering question about human nature as to why, given the evidence, we have trouble imagining the worst. Why?

How are we to take action if we don't understand what the consequences of not taking action would be?

Bear in mind that events of late suggest that the onslaught of global climate change impacts (melting of arctic ice and tundra) and peak oil (flat or negative production for the largest oil suppliers) coupled with the complete blindness of the candidates in the US presidential race (they're concerns seem so shallow and self-serving to me) suggests to me that the rate of the hammer falling is much greater than I thought, even a year ago. I must confess, I am in serious doubt about the long-term prospects of humanity in its current form.

I ask again, what is the strategic plan for Human 1.89? What should humanity be doing right now to assure there is a sentient tomorrow? Or are we even capable of thinking this way?