Every year on this day I blow out candles on a birthday cake* and am reminded of that day of my birth (64 years ago, but who's counting) when the lives of perhaps 140,000 were blown out in Hiroshima, Japan. America dropped the atomic bomb on that city, a bomb dubbed "Little Boy", on August 6, 1945. The linkage between that event and my birthday has been one of the reasons I cannot ignore the darker side of human nature as we approach the advent of declining net energy in the world.
I cannot but worry about how the majority of our species will react to declining resources. The standard of living in the developed world will most surely be drastically diminished. And those of the developing world will never be realized, leading to tremendous frustration on everybody's part. Since the vast majority of people do not realize the fundamental facts about energy flow and wealth production they will be puzzled by why this is happening. Most people in the world do not know about peak oil and even those who have heard of it seem unable to visualize the consequences of reducing our energy inputs to the global economy.
Frustration and bewilderment are not good places to come from in trying to cope with the changes that will ensue.
As regular readers know I have come to the conclusion that the energy decline is inevitable. There is nothing that we can do now to avert it. If we had had the wisdom fifty years ago to start developing alternative sustainable energy infrastructure, AND to implement meaningfully measures to stem the population explosion, AND adopted prudent resource management, AND pushed ahead in energy conservation research, AND disciplined ourselves to not consume for the sake of social status and hedonistic drives, AND... There are many more ANDs, which is why I don't seriously see a reversal of all of these conditions, and certainly not in the time available before the real pressure is on (SHTF).
If my conclusion is right (and there is a growing number of rational-seeming people who have drawn similar conclusions) then the remaining question is: What will we humans do in response? If the behaviors of the past are any indication then we might expect the worst.
If an earnest human being, trying to do what he thought was the best thing for his country could sign an order to, in a flash, wipe out 220,000 mostly civilian lives (80,000 in Nagasaki on the 9th), how can we be sure today's crop of leaders won't resort to barbarous tactics to glean the last drop of oil?
The tragedy is that our species isn't that far from the level of sapience that would have prevented the dilemma in the first place or would avoid barbarism in adapting to the new realities in the future. I think we are probably at least 80% of the way there. Most of us are decent folk most of the time. Most of us have some capacity to build wisdom over the course of our lives. Unfortunately that last 20% may be the hardest to achieve. It requires different brain structures, or at least, stronger structures.
Perhaps my fears won't be realized. We do have the behavior of folk during the Great Depression as an example of the good side; for the most part accepting the fate and digging in to survive, even helping each other out from time to time. The Cubans, after abandonment by the defunct Soviet Union, famously salvaged their society in the wake of drastic oil shortages. Maybe people around the world will be able to adapt to the new realities if the process is just gradual enough to give them time to adjust. Right now, I'd say it is anyone's guess as to what will come down the pike.
Every year, at this time, I wonder.
* At least figuratively speaking. I can't eat cake or ice cream so we just pretend.
..not forgetting the British civilians during WW2 (my grandparents) who dug for victory, relocalised production emerged fitter than ever ....and who George Orwell, as well as Churchill said was 'their finest hour'.
Posted by: GaryA | August 06, 2009 at 07:56 AM
Happy Birthday Lou. Given the absence of cake and icecream I hope you at least played the Beatles.
We visited the Peace Park at Hiroshima several years ago - it's a sobering but worthwhile experience. Then we took the ferry across to Miyajima Island where, to the great amusement of my companions, the sacred deer stole my plan for the day out of my pocket and ate it. Sometimes sapience is not an easy path.
Posted by: Mike | August 06, 2009 at 04:53 PM
Hi Mike.
You can really call me anything but 'late for dinner!'
George (Lou)
Posted by: George Mobus | August 11, 2009 at 11:32 AM