Is It Time For Action?

A Cautionary Tale and an Intuition

There is a tale of a merchant who had just one objective and that was to maximize his profits taking his goods to market. He had a problem, a limitation. He only had one camel. So he piled heaps and heaps of the material wealth he hoped to sell in the market on that one camel. The poor camel withstood the weight as best it could. The merchant kept piling more on. The more he could take the more he could sell. The camel withstood it still. Then the merchant put the last thing on the camel that he would need for the long trip, straw fodder for the camel's food. While putting the bag of fodder on the camel's back one small straw fell out of the bag as he was lifting it up. Being a 'frugal' man, the merchant picked up the straw while failing to notice the camel's strain. He dropped the straw into the bag atop the camel's back. But it's weight was just enough to break the camel's back. The camel collapsed and died. The merchant not only didn't realize his goal, he was out of business. Without the camel he could not get his goods to market. And since he was so far away from any other human outpost, he was destined to die there in the desert, amid his precious wealth. The moral of the story, of course, is that had he not been so greedy as to overpack the camel, he would have made enough profit and lived. Greed will get you in the end.

Greed, the desire for more stuff that can only be produced by consuming ever larger amounts of energy, is weighing down the Ecos. And now, in an attempt to put one more hole in the Earth in order to extract more oil, the equivalent of one more straw, mankind has unleashed the force that will break the back of the Ecos. For nearly two months now, oil has been gushing into the Gulf of Mexico, spoiling the deep waters, the surface waters and now the wetlands and beaches of the Gulf states. My intuition tells me this is the black swan event that will lead to the collapse of society that we have been considering. Unlike the breaking of the camel's back, a catastrophic and instantaneous collapse, this event will set off a chain of events, like a fan out of dominos, that will result in the ultimate financial collapse of civilization. The global financial system is still incredibly fragile, as the Greek economy and those of several other southern European countries (as well as Ireland) attest. The roaring Chinese economy is based on growth from a very low base, but as Chinese workers are now starting to demand higher wages and better working conditions (sure to raise the energy cost of doing business) that economy is also in a fragile state. Japan is in deep trouble. All of the economies of the world, including (or especially) the US's, are teetering on the brink. All it will take is a trigger event of just the right magnitude to set the collapse in motion.

We've already seen this in the financial collapse of 2008-09, seemingly caused by unduly risky financial instruments, and their bubbles, falling apart — the bubbles burst. There is now a growing consensus that it was the spike in the price of oil that triggered the whole collapse (see this graph, compliments of Wikipedia). The US government and other governments stepped in with bailouts and supports that were, themselves, based on debt — the governments had to borrow the money they then turned around and lent to the various financial institutions as well as many of the automobile companies. I doubt seriously that the governments' would be good for double or triple the amounts they have already borrowed.

The oil gusher, whose rate of flow is now estimated to be ten times greater than originally estimated, will prove to be the trigger of sufficient, indeed more than sufficient magnitude to set off the cascade of damaging events. It looks like a very rough ride to me.

President Obama's Speech

His speech was the straw on the back of my concerns about how the post-peak oil collapse of society will play out. It won't be due to a simple constriction of energy flows as I imagined. It will be a chaotic set of reactions set off by this accident. Certainly there will be effects that will provide a sense of proximate causes, for example the price of oil will very likely start trending higher which will have an obvious impact on the economy, as before. But there will be so many more subtle effects that will ensue from this tragedy, such as the substantial financial losses to businesses throughout the south, which will propagate northward with business and community failures coming in rapid succession.

Obama didn't really say anything. He probably can't say anything substantive because nobody knows what can be done, ether to stop the gusher or to clean up the oil impacts on the shores and the water column. The cost of this effort will so far exceed anything that anyone is now considering that it will simply not be done. The collapse of the Gulf state economies and the potential loss of off-shore sources of oil will spread throughout the whole nation, indeed the world. If we thought the impacts of Katrina were expensive (and have not actually resulted in completion of the cleanup), then this is going to blow our minds. BP will never be able to pay for a sufficient restoration to the region. Neither will the US government be able to pick up the tab. Look for refugees leaving the south in the next six months. If a hurricane hits the Gulf in the near term, the collapse and exodus of survivors may come even sooner.

Obama gave us nothing. BP putting aside $20b in escrow won't be enough. Indeed if this works out like any other government-associated administration of funds, it will not even come out in a timely fashion. I suppose I hoped he would take charge and provide some real leadership. He called this a war. Why then doesn't he mobilize military-level attacks on both the gusher and the clean-up? He could take a lesson from Louisiana governor Jindal's admittedly pathetic attempts (since he really has no resources) to protect the state's shores. At least Jindal is taking action as best he can. Obama talks and assembles a committee!

So don't look to the US government for action.

When Just Asking Questions Might Not Be Enough

For a while now, as I have been thinking more about the feasible living conditions for future humans, after the bottleneck, I've been considering the possibility of taking some actions now as a preparation for what is coming. Before this oil gusher in the Gulf I really thought that there would be time and I could remain focused on analysis of the situation and needs of the future, writing about my thoughts and findings, and letting the doing to someone else, some day in the future. At my age, this seemed like a logical approach.

But now, with the ongoing tragedy, seemingly without solution, and the president's weak jawboning, my gut tells me it is time to get moving. It is time to start preparing for collapse and how to not merely survive but live.

Lately many of you have provided really thoughtful and useful comments. I have received about three or four e-mails for every comment, from other readers. While a few of those are, hmm, how shall I put it - "critical" if not mildly hostile, the rest have the same level of quality as the comments that have been showing up on the blog. So I am wondering what some of you might think about the situation and whether you think it is time to take action. If so, what kind of action?

What I am considering is to find a way to set up a University of Noesis with the core curriculum based on permaculture. This would require finding the right land area and constructing a set of buildings that would provide laboratory, classroom and living quarters. The barn would be a laboratory! I've thought about the school as a resident co-operative. Essentially part of someone's tuition and living expenses would be offset by the work they provide as they learn how to provide food, clothing, shelter and other necessities of life. There would also be academic subjects and the arts in order to have a holistic living experience. Or, at least, that is the outline of the seed of an idea. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Whatever the action that I decide to undertake, just thinking and writing about possibilities won't be sufficient given that the camel's back is about to be broken. As always, I hope the oil gusher gets stopped soon and that my intuition is wrong.

Comments

[George Mobus]

Manoel,

Yikes! I had not seen this. Thanks for the alert.

Yes, if this develops as anticipated it could be a major trigger with an even faster unfolding response. I imagined the Gulf leak building pressure on the trigger until it finally snapped. This solar flare thing looks like it could be an instant disruption globally.

Thanks for the heads up.

George