Doha - Going Through the Motions

The lips will be moving starting tomorrow at the climate talks in Doha, Qatar. There will be actual words spoken. But it is really just a ruse. Anybody with half a brain who thinks about CO₂ emissions and climate change knows something for absolute certain. Nothing short of massive reductions in burning fossil fuels will have any effect whatsoever on CO₂ emissions. And any such reduction will kill economic activity. It isn't even a question of stalling economic growth. We are talking about shutting down most economic activity period. Over 80% of global economic work comes from burning fossil fuels. Anything short of massive shut down is just pretending that there are things we can do to avoid catastrophic climate change like "reducing" our emissions by 10% by 2020.Given the rate at which we are seeing changes already, indeed the acceleration of such changes, it is clear that the greenhouse gasses we have already pumped into the atmosphere and oceans is enough to guarantee catastrophe.

The people involved know this is true. But they need to go through the motions in an attempt to keep the rest of the citizenry (or should I say consumers) from panicking. They will engage in "serious" talks about the needs for rich countries to help out poor countries adapt to things like sea level rise. They will make pledges to do better next time, but right now with the world economy in such poor shape, not even rich countries have the wherewithal to help themselves, let alone poor ones. They will work really hard to form a framework for the next round of talks, once again putting off the inevitable reality. They will kick the can down the road yet again.

They can get by with this simply because as yet nothing so brutally catastrophic has happened that can readily be tied to global warming so as to make the matter urgent. Sure Katrina and Sandy gave a taste of potential problems. The heat wave over much of the US this last summer portended bad things to come. But those bad things are still out in the future. We got through the latest inconveniences so no need to panic just yet.

People will go about their lives only mildly concerned at best. They will leave it to the negotiators and climate ministers to work out solutions. Somebody will invent something that will fix it all anyway!

I continue to watch this fiasco unfold. What a remarkable time in human history to be alive. We're sitting in deck chairs on the Titanic while some of the crew are busy moving other furniture around, we just watch the ship approach the ice berg. This is going to be interesting.

 

Comments

[Manolo]

Hi George! Love your blog. Slightly on topic, just curious if you are aware of these developments in the Arctic:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.ch/2012/08/charting-mankinds-expressway-to-extinction.html
Seems that fundamental changes are at our doorsteps...

[Oliver]

Sticking with the Titanic metaphor, a useful analogy to what our "leaders" are doing is that, sighting the iceberg ahead, they finally realize the ship is in for a rough ride and the answer is simple - fit castors to the deckchairs! Surely this will allow us to roll with the waves! They just won't accept that the unsinkable is very much sinkable.

[Paul Chefurka]

PriceWaterhouse, the World Bank, UNEP, the European Environment Agency and even Prince Charles have spoken out in the last two weeks. Even people close to the levers of power know it's happening. What nobody will say is that even universal awareness won't keep the reality we are now committed to from unfolding. How long will it be before the wheels fall off entirely?

Every time I hear the name "Doha" my brain turns it into Homer Simpson's tag line, "D'oh!"

[Robin Datta]

The folks at the conference may not have to worry too much for too long:

Charting Mankind’s Arctic Methane Emission Exponential Expressway to Total Extinction in the Next 50 Years.

[kt256]

Amazing, in light of the Methane issue, if you do something you destabilize societies and if you do nothing you will destabilize them only a bit later but more thoroughly.

Gee, I don't want to be a politician. Given that even lower rank politicians under normal circumstances receive death threats and the like, what will it be like in either scenario.

Much like some conspiracy nut I saw some time ago on youtube, one should ponder whether ww3 couldn't solve the problem, by drastically reducing industrial output, reducing mankind to a safe level, and kicking up some dust to alleviate global warming problems, sounds almost better than the alternatives.

[Molly]

Wait wait wait.....didn't you hear? The Great US of A is soon gonna be energy INDEPENDENT! Free fuel from fracking. No more reliance on those nasty Middle East oil states, so we can burn even MORE fossil fuel. And everyone knows that OUR fossil fuel doesn't contain those nasty greenhouse gases that THEIRS contains. So, home free.

Yes, sarcasm intended.......

[Oliver]

kt256 - Reason tells me that we can be sure that certain dark forces (not the same as the puppet politicians we know about) are well-acquainted with these issues and are already actively planning for self-survival when resource constraints reach critical levels. I posit that they will attempt to provoke - one way or another - the culling of the majority of the world's population. This however is doomed to failure, as no amount of fictitious paper wealth or ownership/seizing of depleting resources will buy them sufficient insulation from the post-catastrophe environment that will be much more hostile to human life.

The real good news about all this is that this planet - it's not "our planet" - will persist and recalibrate as always, enabling evolution to generate the next phase of most adaptable life-forms, who will inherit the earth without referral to Homo sapiens.

Anyone among our species able to discard the embarrassing mantle of egotism and anthropocentrism will not have any difficulty accepting that we have had our time in the sun and we have not used it particularly wisely, even if we are clever in creating technology, albeit by over-indulging in finite natural resources as if there is no tomorrow.

No tomorrow, indeed. For us anyway.

[Bodhi Chefurka]

One thing Doha is doing , is giving those with messages and warnings a world stage. Like these good folks:

http://www.smh.com.au/national/at-the-edge-of-disaster-20121127-2a5xe.html

Estamos tan jodidos!

[Molly]

Creo que si

[D]

The exact same words could almost be written about peak oil and resource depletion. Right now, we are furiously burning up fossil fuels as fast as we can dig them up--one last climate changing blowout in the age of excess before that particular Titanic also hits the iceberg.

Interesting times, indeed.

[Molly]

Bodhi - Thanks for that link. VERY interesting in a very depressing sorta way. Should be leading the news EVERYWHERE, but of course it isn't. It's about the fate of our kids and grand kids....and all the poor folks to come......

[E.D. Schleissmann]

Perhaps humanity is simply continuing its gestation. Consider, if you may, that your argument relies upon our species as currently constrained to Earth; however, should we change our perception as "in utero", and allow that the same evolutionary forces that brought about the gift of agriculture could cultivate a technological growth which would give birth to man and woman leaving this planet for the frontier of other planets (as our ancestors once walked, rode and sailed away from their motherlands), then the extensive, if not crazy consumption of resources, could be considered appropriate and necessary nourishment.

Who says we have to stay? Who says the path of evolution requires our home remain on this rock?

Maybe the Earth is smarter than her children and she is preparing us (some of us anyway) to fulfill the destiny of all children, to grow up and leave home.

Harness the power of the sun (fusion not fission) and fossil fuels are as antiquated as a campfire. Construct self-sustaining bio-domes and you sustain your own atmosphere instead of fowling the Earth's allowing her to replenish.

Innovative technology has always tipped the balance. Yes, I summarily agree with your assessment of the situation but your premise is cynical and does not allow for those whose compassion and intelligence adapt, improvise and overcome the challenges presented by the selfish (consider them a necessary condition of the current state of our evolution). Engage hope, we'll be fine.