The Resource Crisis and Climate Change
Back in July, 2013 I wrote this post, MENA - A Model of the Future? in which I dug deeper into the then crisis transpiring in Egypt where a revolt against the Morsi government was being spurred by the fact that the dwindling natural resources per capita (especially energy) were fundamentally unsolvable by any government. The people were unhappy because they thought that by voting in a new government democratically they would solve their problems (jobs, food, water, fuel, etc.) But it didn't happen for the simple reason that the resource pie was shrinking faster than any government actions (say attracting some kind of investment in the country) could counter. Things got worse and people once again took to the streets. Today, two years later, things have gotten considerably worse under the military regime that kicked out Morsi and took over. As I claimed then and reiterate, it is a matter of plain and simple physics, not politics. You cannot legislate resources into existence.
People have gotten used to thinking that solutions come from politics - having the right officials in place means that they will solve the problems. People everywhere pretty much assume this is the case, even in the US where the freak show called the presidential campaign is off and running. No doubt many republicans in the US sincerely believe that Donald Trump will solve all the problems and everything will be right as rain once again ("Make America great again").
But politicians are not miracle workers. They cannot feed the multitudes from a few loaves of bread and a couple of fish. What they have become, however, right along side their neoclassical economics allies, are fair magicians — prestidigitators. They know how to manipulate smoke and mirrors and conjure economic spells. They are nothing more than snake oil con men (and women). The irony is that they actually believe what they say and are convinced they know how to really make good stuff happen. They are a testament to the capacity of the less-than-sapient mind's ability to double think.
The simple truth is that when you find yourself in deep resource depletion and high population no amount of financial hocus pocus or political posturing or brute force can fix anything. The Morsi government nor the military junta before and after could ever possibly satisfy the needs of the people. No government could. Nor could there be massive aid influx to ease the situation. The other nations of the world are all much poorer than they will admit. They cannot pump enough resources into the region to solve the problems. There is no scenario in which this comes out well.
Our talking heads continue to evaluate the “causes” of the mass exodus from the MENA region as due to the political unrest growing more violent by the day. For example they look at Syria and blame the problems, initially, on Asad and the rebellion/civil war that threatens so many civilians. Then the US government focuses on the ISIS threat as causing so many people to want to leave. These destructive acts are merely proximate causes. The rebels against Asad are basically repeating the story in Egypt. They claim that bad government (Asad) is the cause of the problems experienced by the people. Replace the government and problem solved! Right? Much the same story is being repeated through out the other failed states in the region.
The civil wars and lawlessness (e.g. Boko Haram) are driven by the rapid decline of resources compounded now by climate consequences, drought and severe temperatures. People are fighting for dwindling resources in increasingly unlivable conditions. The citizens of these states are responding most immediately to the violence, and claiming political asylum on that basis. But make no mistake. They are ultimately climate and resource refugees. And there is no policy or plan that will correct the situation. The lucky ones will escape (if they don't die on the journey) to Europe and possibly to the US. But that will simply cause resource strains in those areas where they settle. Nor will the flood taper off until the region is mostly emptied.
MENA is just the first example of what is happening in the world. As the climate situation worsens, and we now know that it is and will further, affecting every continent on the planet, and as resource depletions grow acute in various focused locations, we will see this same scenario played out again and again. Political upheaval based on the belief that the government's ineptitude, or corruption, or whatever, is responsible for the problems that ensue (food shortages, fuel shortages, unemployment, etc.) will give over to violence. Regimes will change, but the problems will just grow worse.
Perhaps the US and some of the remaining western “rich” nations will try to help, intervene to reduce violence, or attempt to aid relocations. But their capacity to afford such actions are growing weaker with every day that passes. At some point the wealthy nations will no longer be truly wealthy and will decline to try to help. They will, in fact, be starting to feel the same effects themselves. Already we see the discord and extreme polarizations taking place in many western polities. In the US we tend to blame the congress for its deadlocked inability to pass laws that will effect economic change (and assumed progress). Neither side gets a thumbs-up on its economic ideas. In any case both sides firmly believe that economic growth is the solution to all problems and neither recognizes that we've used up all of the resources that we need to do so. They are so blind to reality that all they can really do from now on is exacerbate the problems. In the US we are in a situation that only the most blind persons even seek political position. They are so stupid and ignorant that they cannot even conceive that problems have real physical roots. Pity.
All over the world, right now, you can find cases of pockets of affected areas where people are starting to move out seeking somewhere where they can find work and resources. Within nations like Brazil, China, Russia, and even the United States there are instances of people becoming refugees. The Dust Bowl events in the US are another model for what is happening. Right now, in each of these countries the migrations are within the borders (except in Mexico and other Latin American countries) and so don't show up in “official” statistics.
Certainly there have been relocation migrations throughout humankind's history. We've always managed to deplete local resources forcing people to abandon a region, for example areas in the Middle East were once far more productive than in recent history before ungulate grazing changed the region's climate. And there have been many cases of people simply seeking better conditions (e.g. the American West promised great possibilities, especially during the Gold Rush). What is different about the current situation is that we are looking at a global phenomenon. Resources have been depleted just about everywhere. Climate is changing everywhere and at a breath-taking rate. The regions that are experiencing the worst effects are now quite obvious. The MENA region is probably the most dramatic. For example, by contrast, island nations being threatened by sea level rise and Arctic regions being impacted by loss of ice have fewer people affected and so do not rise to the level of global-level stress. Nevertheless the people effected in these regions are beginning to plan their escapes from their situations.
Right now in China there are many local emigrations taking place due to combinations of insufficient resources and climate change consequences. There is also a fair amount of unrest brewing in various areas. These are not as dramatic (yet) as the case in the MENA region. And internal migrations, as I said, are not depicted in the same manner as the refugee flood from the MENA to Europe. In fact it might be even worse in China than we know. The country is so much larger, the populations involved so much larger, and the information flow coming out of the country is subject to so much filtering that we might not get a good idea of what is happening there until significant violence breaks out that can't be hidden. But based on China's geographical conditions, and its potential susceptibility to climate disruptions, and the distributions of its huge population, I expect to soon see a situation similar to the MENA refugees become obvious in China.
India might erupt before China. The Indian subcontinent's orientation (North-South axis), its reliance on the snow falls and ice reservoirs in the Himalayas and its proximity to the equator make it a candidate for significant climate disruptions. It is already suffering changes in its monsoon patterns at the same time the huge population is withdrawing more water from its limited resources. However, in India I would not be surprised to see a somewhat different response from the populace. The vast majority of people in the country do not have mobility resources in the same way many Chinese do. It would not surprise me if a significant portion of the Indian population simply succumbed in place rather than trying to trek out. The distances are too great and the conditions along the way are likely to not provide support. There is no other large body of land nearby for those in the costal regions to escape to.
As the MENA refugee crisis unfolds this fall we will have a good view of what to expect world-wide. Right now a fair amount of European sentiment is in support of the migrants (I know there is a technical difference between a migrant and a refugee, but as I claimed above, these refugees are really climate-escape migrants). As more and more pour into the continent we will see how long this sentiment carries. There are many anti-migrant advocates already making noises and trying to get more political purchase. A lot will depend on the economic strength of the countries taking in the migrants — will the local natives be able to get jobs? — and the behavior of the immigrants. There is a real danger of culture clash based on the religious backgrounds of Muslim immigrants and secular (or Christian) natives. I refuse to predict anything on this count. The situation is too chaotic.
What I will predict is that the phenomenon will grow and worsen over the next decade. This is a one-way street we are on and no U-turns are possible. You can't un-deplete resources, especially fossil fuel energy. Readers of my biophysical economics writings will know how dim a view I have of the prospects of alternative energies replacing fossil fuels even if we were to undertake a huge reduction in net energy use. Alternatives might ease the pain a bit, for a while, but they cannot provide the long term flows of high power energy that it takes to drive our modern technologies. Magical and wishful thinking cannot change that fact. Alternative energy capture and conversion equipment (i.e. wind towers and solar arrays) are still built, installed, and maintained using fossil fuel power. It is quite doubtful that they will ever be self-sustaining to the extent of providing adequate net energy for economic uses.
If you want to consider your own future, imagine yourself in the shoes of one of the MENA refugees right now. Many of the ones who are making the trip had some basic monetary resources to afford the passage. But look at what they were reduced to in doing so. Imagine yourself now in a situation where the local stores are no longer stocked with food and other necessaries. Imagine your electricity being intermittent, maybe only on ten percent of the day. Imagine transportation breakdowns, perhaps gas is no longer delivered to your gas station. Imagine communications breakdowns. No Internet. No telephones (cell or land lines). What will you do?
But more than that, imagine that you decide to escape. Where will you go. The MENA refugees have Europe, ostensibly, to escape to. They expect their problems to be greatly reduced in these new lands. After all, the North is rich. Where will you go? What country will you escape to? Maybe some Americans are thinking they will go to Canada! But do they actually understand what the climate changes are going to mean for all of North America?
I doubt there will be any real escape. The best a sapient being can do is find a location that looks like it will be least impacted by climate, get situated and hunker down. With luck, you might just make it.
One of the most disturbing things about this whole situations has been the response from what would be call "liberal" sections of the society.
It has been far worse than just the burying of heads in the sand you would expect.
So The Guardian for example, otherwise very concerned about the environment, has been deleting pretty much any comment pointing out that this is happening because of overpopulation and environmental degradation and that taking these causes into account, we're not talking about a limited batch of innocent refugees. Complete refusal to face reality.
Posted by: GM | September 11, 2015 at 09:05 PM
Of possible interest:
Ecology of Peace (EoP) New World Order (NWO) Intl Law social contract options for implementing humane depopulation and de-industrialization return to living within ecological carrying capacity limits. An Ecology of Peace international social contract would restrict all the worlds citizens to procreating and consuming below ecological carrying capacity limits; or being eliminated from the planetary genepool.
Re: Guardian Head in Sand: EU-LU: Curia General Crt: RH EoP v Addresseavisen .. Guardian et al.
A copy of this comment is posted in EoP v WiP NWO negotiations: Comments Correspondence [PDF].
Posted by: Andrea Muhrrteyn | September 12, 2015 at 08:45 AM
'Yea, but no, but yea, but..', just to quote Vicki Pollard. Some interesting new words and acronyms like 'prestidigitators', but whose going to explain that to Gerry & Martin? As for lumping Hippos and Giraffes in with husbanded livestock - as per the word 'ungulate' - how very fecking dare you! MENA was worth the wait but boy have you expanded her potentialities still who are we to deny the lady her geographic spread? It's true though ME is too mean and myopic, though relevant in and of itself. Methinks the conversation between Islam and Europe is well over due and I welcome the emergence of a Eurasian Union at least including the mixed Shia world extending from Turkey to Iraq, Syrian and Lebanon though likely excluding Iran and Israel too Israel for being too theocratic for Europe's humanist temperament. So yes jam altogether and get on with it. As for MENA's North-African leg surely talk to the Sunnis about that or are they too dammed elitist to share their sand castles in the air?
India, far from being the underdog, may well produce the answer and indeed it already has namely the Krishna Kirtan floor which feeds hundreds at a time from a small collection of pots assuming there are sufficient devotees to tend kitchen. We hear so little about the vegetarian imperative despite livestock accounting for over half of all GhG's and the impossible paradox which deindustrialisation. But yea the three response are essentially technological, ideological or lifestyle (primarily and shift to vegetarianism) and we hear so little of the latter. As for China well the Chinese are likely to take care of themselves once they cop-onto the new game in town which is really about sufficiency.
As for moving to ecologically stable zones I mean this is the baseline greedy-green position which is essentially survivalist. In a world of hunger there will be no surviving anywhere. This is the tragedy of the commons as opportunity as in it is the chance to get over and under ourselves. Our sense of mission both as individual and as a society is misguided in that it needs refocusing from self-service to just service as in discovering that wealth lies in the contribution we make - regardless of whether that is measured monetarily or not. If I have served I have also succeeded. My failures are a map to ingratitude which is to say we need to take care not to serve the wrong people - those prestidigitators you spoke of.
Posted by: paul cassidy | September 12, 2015 at 10:00 AM
Massive overpopulation - 300% increase in my 70 years - is the primary driver. Climate has always changed and will always change. Humans are part of the current drivers in my view. Technology greatly increased leverage while population grew. We will likely hit the growth wall this century. It won't be nice for our grandchildren. Yes, try to find a resilient place.
Posted by: Kurtzs | September 13, 2015 at 05:13 AM
@GM and also Steve Kurtz(s),
I certainly agree that overpopulation is the single most cogent (final?) "cause" of all of this plight. Population combined with technology (at least in the developed countries) has spewed huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in pursuit of a high power lifestyle. I have certainly written a fair amount about these factors over the years. My point here was simply to point out that the talking heads and so-called experts on world affairs are not even bothering to dig into the ground truth of why there is so much unrest and now violence in this region. The "Arab Spring" was interpreted, by these same people, from the get-go as a quest for liberal democracy so that people would be able to pursue their desires for self-determination (presumably leading to gainful employment and food on the table). The perceived block to them achieving this goal was the dictatorial governments that were corrupt and failing to provide the necessaries of life as a good government should (you know, like in the US!) Ergo, get rid of the government or force more democratic input and the problems will be solved.
Except they weren't. The revolt has metastasized and morphed into several different forms in each sub-region and according to local contexts. But they all have one thing in common. The whole region is undergoing (and has been for more than a decade) an accelerating decline in already marginal agricultural conditions. Couple this with a substantial decline in aid, especially to North African states and the effects of already oversized populations and the impact is dramatic.
What bothers me, now that I think about it, is that with the kind of "politics is to blame" thinking going on, everyone will spend effort and money looking for a political (or military) solution with the thought that once that is provided things will return to "normal." But of course, with the real cause being the continuing degradation in life-support in the region, the problem will only get worse until the last refugee has exited leaving whoever can't get out to die in place. But by that time, consider what is probably happening in Europe and the US!
---------------------------------------
@Andrea Muhrrteyn,
Thank you for the links. I can't say I understand the context entirely but other readers might find them useful.
-------------------------------------
@paul cassidy,
I shall take your quirky, if not snarky, criticisms under consideration, once I figure out what you are saying!
-----------------------------------
@Steve Kurtz,
Just turned 70 last month. Time to get to work.
George
Posted by: George Mobus | September 13, 2015 at 01:35 PM
The world is facing a witches' brew of climate change, overpopulation, resource depletion, financial instability and political intransigence. It has already poisoned MENA. Look for the toxicity to spread as these streams coalesce in more countries and regions.
Regarding "hunkering down", my strategy is to face whatever comes exactly where I am, in the community I already belong to, for better or worse, sapient or not. Since we have no way of knowing which of several relatively safe-seeming places will suffer the least from the random vicissitudes of Mother Nature, if the spot you're in seems relatively OK, just stay there and live. In general, community will be more important than location no matter what happens.
Posted by: Paul Chefurka | September 14, 2015 at 09:42 AM
Great post George! I couldn't agree more. I'm currently down in São Paulo with front row seats to the 'Political' crisis here.
Nobody seems to get it here either... The conversation is all about political corruption and how it needs to end.
No one seems to grasp how resource depletion, peak fossil fuels, water shortage due to climate change induced drought are affecting this city of 20 million inhabitants. Everyone thinks a new political order will solve things and allow the economy to get back on a path to infinite growth.
As the Chinese curse says: "May you live in interesting times", well our current times are about as interesting as they get. Good Luck to all!
Cheers!
Fred Magyar
Posted by: Fred Magyar | September 19, 2015 at 11:24 AM
Population drives everything . Population will grow since it is rather instincts driven than intellect Given adequate resources i.e. Food and shelter . This food is was produced by the energy fossil fuels and innovation produced until now . Add some sanitary improvements and a little medical and you also greatly enhance newborn survival odds. That will drive population Numbers exponentially up in linear fashion alongside available resource base . This will go on until surplus energy decline diminishes food availability . Or due to excessive pollution caused by fossil fuels food production diminishes due to fossil fuel pollution caused climate change . Than crash .. also war is an option since it is hard to imagine whole countries laying down and die .. ok maybe India . Yes it has started in little ways already this is just a preview of things to come .. Its all good balance will be restored even if it means humans will have to go extinct . No biggie . In geological or cosmic terms Humans 2 million years is a very short time . In another 10 million years there must be some other sentient folk running around figuring out shit .. That's going to be their time under the sun .. This one is still ours Enjoy yours now here while it lasts
Posted by: Etyere Petyere | September 19, 2015 at 11:32 AM
Problem human overpopulation. Solution bio-weapons for a 99% population decrease.
Posted by: Ed Pell | September 19, 2015 at 03:28 PM
@Etyere Petyere:
Thanks for a nicely constructed explanation. I hope U won't mind I'll use ur words while briefing interlocutors into the topic. (as the Eng lng is not my nativ)
Posted by: Jura | September 21, 2015 at 07:53 AM
Americans are intensely stupid. They won't believe in climate change refugees until it happens to them.
I have spent years and years blogging on this topic, to no avail. So far, I've reached 300,000 readers, but the level of activity (actual response) is very, very low (less then 0.001%).
I'd have been better of shoveling xtian propaganda ("Blood Moon", Shemitah), in order to get a response, which I refuse to do.
Due to extreme levels of propaganda and programming, the United States will simply not respond effectively, on any level, to the climate crisis. This is incredibly obvious now.
Public pressure is nearly absent. Public awareness is still being ridiculed. Morons and idiots are all looking in the wrong direction at the wrong things.
It's always been about climate and resources, but the media refuses honest reporting.
That's not going to change, not even when there are a billion refugees.
I give it no more then two years before we hit that figure.
Posted by: JR | September 26, 2015 at 01:07 PM
hi mentioned this blog in this online rant...one of the oldest newspapers worldwide http://www.wienerzeitung.at/meinungen/leserforum/774493_Degradierende-Klima-und-Umweltbedingungen-als-unumkehrbarer-Katalysator.html
Posted by: thomas | October 01, 2015 at 06:37 AM
In Syria you can indeed lay most of the blame on the Assad regime. The super drought pushed agriculture over the cliff, but they were racing in that direction anyway: E.g. 1) They have been warned since decades of the ruin perpetrated by overgrazing. But Assad gave the steppe to his buddies. 2) Similar nepotism in water management. 1)+2)+...= Active agricultural suicide! And global warming just made sure they succeed.
3) Similar criminal neglect, the Syrian population bomb: They have been warned since the 80ies. Yet the poorest multiplied fastest (those farmers pushed over the cliff, migrating into exploding cities, with no help by Assad, which started the whole bloody mess of today).
Posted by: Martin Gisser | October 11, 2015 at 12:27 PM
All
My apologies for the slowness of responses to wonderful comments. The more I retire the busier I seem to get. Many conferences are now focusing on the "Anthropocene" so I have been very busy working on workshops and presentations.
That said I will try to address some of your comments.
----------------------------------------
@Paul C.
You continue to have a clear perspective I value. May I humbly suggest that you do have some potential for identifying "more" stable areas and also that you represent a "more" sapient mind so please consider a "more" active attention to where and with whom to settle. My sense is you will contribute to the future generation!
-------------------------------------------
@Fred M.
Basically the same comment. Find a community and be one of the contributors to the next generation!
-------------------------------------
@Etyere Petyere,
Be a contributor to that next generation. Hunker down.
-----------------------------------
@Ed Pell,
I believe nature will take care of the overpopulation problem. Get ye to a safe harbor and contribute to the future of humanity.
------------------------------------
@Jura,
Same comment.
----------------------------------
@JR,
So learn from your experience and find refuge and like-minded people. Those who actually recognize the situation are needed to guide the survivors through the bottleneck. The rest will take care of itself.
-----------------------------------
@thomas,
Don't rant. Act.
--------------------------------------
@Martin G.,
Forces are in motion. The time for analysis is largely over (except to understand for ourselves what is happening and why). The time to take action is at hand.
George
Posted by: George Mobus | October 11, 2015 at 05:50 PM