I'm at the 8th almost annual Biophysical Economics meeting, this year in Montana (Flathead Lake Bio Station). The subject of discussions continues to be the energy issues that are an ever growing threat to humanity. There is such an incredible disconnect between the scientific data being discussed here versus the stories told in the media regarding energy availability. The ordinary citizen thinks that because gasoline prices are relatively low (but they do seem to be creeping up) and they hear so much about fracked oil and gas, that we must be swimming in energy resources. Nothing could be further from the truth. And the reasons for low gas prices are counter intuitive so I doubt that the average consumer would be able to understand.
Many of us who have been following the twin problems of peak oil and falling energy return on energy availability were caught off guard by the sudden fall in oil prices. Of course they are still high by historical standards and since most of the new oil is coming from unconventional sources with costs higher than the market value of the oil, the oil and gas companies are losing money like crazy. The smaller ones are going bankrupt, the bigger ones are borrowing like crazy to stay in business and preserve their market shares. Things are really going crazy.
I have nothing to say about the political circus or the financial bubble(s) that are hanging over our collective head right now. I've said it all before. You know the story.
For me, I will just enjoy summer and keep working on my new book and hope something good eventually will come to pass.
I have discovered an interesting video that connects the dots to "the missing sapience problem"
It's short, scientific and entertaining:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgYqW2Kgkg
What do you say, probable? sounds plausible to me ;-)
Posted by: MM | June 22, 2017 at 11:57 AM
@MM,
Thanks very much for the link. I will investigate further and perhaps resurface my Sapience book! I can't necessarily address the probability/plausibility at present, but will dig deeper. Thanks again.
George
Posted by: George Mobus | June 22, 2017 at 04:44 PM
"Things are really going crazy" says it all....
Regards Enki
Posted by: EnkiAnuna | June 23, 2017 at 02:35 AM
I've been saying for FIFTY years that there's only SO MUCH OIL on the planet, and we need to conserve it. My first husband....a SCIENTIST....would just say, "Oh Molly....don't worry...it's a big planet." Well DUH. But even a big planet is FINITE, and the amount of ANYTHING on it is FINITE.
Posted by: Molly Radke | June 27, 2017 at 01:00 PM
George,
Is there a website for this annual meeting? Where can I find a list of the papers which were presented?
The facebook page for the International Society for Biophysical Economics has not been updated this year. Neither has the website (bpeconomics.org). Am I looking in the wrong places?
Was the conference primarily about declining EROI?
Regards,
-Tom S
Posted by: Tom S | June 27, 2017 at 10:56 PM
Hi George,
I would say that this downhill trend began in the late 60´s, when population surpassed 3600 million and suddenly, with the help of technology, humans began to become a real threat to the Biosphere, combining number and power. A moment in time that (interestingly) coincides with the publication of "Limits to growth".
What has changed recently is the growing awareness of the problem, still not enough to revert the process though, I guess it will never be, as I wrote in Carolyn Baker´s Blog some years ago. Today we are just being dragged by the system, just as we have been along our entire life (but without noticing it). Nothing to do to change the course of events certainly. The only questions to be answered are related with how the collapse will actually unfold. I would guess that it will hardly be an abrupt process. Population and the human system will adapt to changes, just as the people from Venezuela has been adapting to the growing limitations they experience without doing something to change things. I would extrapolate that behavior to the world while experiencing the collapse. As it has already been happening, if you make a parallel. We are already living the collapse, in first person. An interesting moment in history.
Regards
Posted by: Godofredo Aravena | June 28, 2017 at 04:19 PM
@Enki,
It does, doesn't it.
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@Molly,
Glad you indicated "first" husband!!! If you get to Tacoma again, let me know.
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@Tom,
The ISBPE organization is still not very organized! At the meeting we had a business session in which it was revealed that there are still a number of unfilled "positions", including web guru! This meeting was a work shop so the presentations were not really "papers" as such. I don't think there will be a submission of papers, even though some of us have tried to prepare such. If I get a chance, I will try to post what I wrote.
The main topic was EROI, but there was a considerable amount of dissension as to what that should mean. One significant problem in expanding the boundaries of EROI analysis is that most of the data are reported in dollar amounts and the analysts are forced to convert dollars into joules for consistency. The problem is that dollars are incredibly lousy measures of anything anymore. Financialization of the economy has distorted the value of dollars so much that nothing really meaningful can be said about energy costs converted from dollar measures. This will continue to be a major problem in BPE for some time to come, I'm afraid.
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@Godofredo,
Got your email, but will need time to digest - long!
Not sure that one can answer the question about how the collapse will unfold. Too many variables, I think.
Re: (in your email) the nature of evolution, and my "faith" in it, it seems to me you may be working from an incorrect consideration of evolution. It is not based on pure random events (and magic), as you suggested, though random events do play a role (i.e. mutations). Rather, it follows a pattern of unfoldment (covered in my book - Principles of Systems Science). That is why I asked the question about trajectories!
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George
Posted by: George Mobus | June 28, 2017 at 06:04 PM
It started November 2016.
Posted by: Richard McBroom | August 08, 2017 at 08:50 AM