Spring Equinox - From Africa

As I write, a few days before the Equinox, I am on the main island of Zanzibar off the coast of Tanzania (Zanzibar is actually part of Tanzania but with its own president and parliamentary council). We are on the last days of a trip that took us to the Serengeti for four days of camping but also to Terengeri National Forest, Olduvai Gorge (the locals call it Oldupai), the Rift Valley, and Ngorongoro Crater (actually a giant caldera). We also visited a Maasai village, a primary school, a business that makes clay water filters, a market, and other various side adventures. Unfortunately I cannot begin to tell you what all we have seen, so I will only mention some of my impressions of traveling in a developing (but still very much undeveloped) country and how I see things here working into the larger global catastrophe we are starting to experience.

In Tanzania the seasons flow with a different kind of rhythm., between dry and rainy seasons.

But first, my impressions of the people of Tanzania. They are the warmest, kindest, most gracious people I think I have ever met, as a population. Everywhere we went, our guides took us to meet the people and everywhere they welcomed us openly. The Maasai chief and his first wife sat with us insider her hut and we spoke openly and frankly about Masai life and challenges they face.

If you ever get a chance to visit Tanzania, jump at it. If you are a little bit adventurous, can adapt to very different cultural settings, and are interested to learn about developing nations this is definitely a must see.

But, unfortunately you should probably do it soon. There are signs of stress here that are worrying. There are many signs of climate change affecting the country. For example the rainy season is getting delayed each year more and more (by a week or more). We were lucky in the sense that it delayed enough for us to see everything before it commenced in full (as I write it looks like the rains have finally come in earnest). The wildebeest, zebra, and other ungulates migrations in the Serengeti were in full swing as we arrived (you cannot imagine how awe-inspiring and mind-boggling a seemingly endless parade of animals crossing the road can be: think of the longest time you've waited for a train to pass and then double it, nay quadruple it!). The animals migrate to the southern Serengeti just before the rains come to that part and provide food and water. The grasses are low there which allows them to detect hunters on the prowl more easily - they are protecting their newborns. The rains were late and as a result the migrations have become more haphazard in recent years. The animals were staying in the north where the grass is longer, giving cover to the cats and hyenas as they stalked baby ungulates that were born according to the rhythms of the old reliable seasons. Our lead guide tells us this has been getting worse over the last decade and if it gets worse than this it is likely going to have an impact on the populations (over 1.8 million wildebeests in Serengeti alone). It may already be having an impact if so many young are easier prey for the lions and leopards.

The changes in the rainy season timing are affecting the tribes in the bush as well. They depend on the rain to time their planting of corn, for example, and the production of natural foods in the environment (and especially grasses for their cattle). The end of the dry season is lean but extending that dry season, even by a couple of weeks, puts a lot of stress on people and animals alike. We saw many skinny cattle, ribs showing. The goats seem to do OK since they eat many more plant types and some are dry adapted.

But the biggest shock for me came just yesterday (the 14th) when we went snorkeling on the barrier reef off of the island. We took a traditional dhow sail boat, but it was outfitted with a motor which was needed in our case because the sea was in the doldrums that day! We had clear skies but there were clouds all around us portending rains coming to the island. Sure enough, that night it poured. When I dove into the sea I was seriously disappointed, but more deeply regretful for what I saw. The reef had not only bleached completely, but many corals were dead; I could find no animals filter feeding. The water, still somewhat clear, was just a bit turbid since the corals, which normally clean the water of small particulates, were not doing so. We swam over a large track of the reef. I kept expecting to find some parts still colorful. But no. The whole reef was grey white. The only fish we saw were the kind that can get along without living coral.

So, there in full grotesque display, I saw directly one of the major impacts of global warming on the oceans.

Politically, Tanzania is stable and relatively calm for the moment. The people express a great deal of confidence that their new President will make wise decisions (for example he got a law passed to ban plastic bags) and he is very environmentally aware, realizing that a substantial part of the national income is from eco-tourism. Even so, there are worrying conditions. Corruption is still a problem. The people do not always benefit from whatever development goes on (there are many resorts being built along the rim of the Serengeti and there is talk of constructing one or more paved roads to allow easier access). Combined with the climate stresses this could lead to considerable unrest among the people. Kenya, just north of Tanzania, has been experiencing increasing political unrest(as reported in the news in the developing world) owing to more advanced but similar conditions. It is now much more recognized that countries in Northern Africa, e.g. Tunisia, Libya, and others, experienced revolutions owing to extremes of conditions not dissimilar to those taking place in Kenya and Tanzania now. We will need to keep our eyes on the situation here to see how things go as environmental pressures mount.

The days are all like the Equinox. We are quite near the Equator so the sun rises and falls around 6:00 am and pm, respectively, every day. In fertile areas they can raise crops all year round, but the areas of fertile soil are limited. In our plane ride from Arusha to Zanzibar we could get a better idea of the ratio of arid to upland fertile areas and the latter seem to be much less.

Work on my new book has taken a back seat to the tour - so much to do every day. But the tour is coming to an end. I will be heading back home in two days, via London for an adjustment few days. I am looking forward to returning to my routine, I must admit. Nevertheless, I am extremely glad I came here. I have had a chance to see, first hand, what sorts of challenges the Southern Hemisphere in Africa is facing and how they are trying to adapt. They do not have the same kinds of resources we have in the developed world, but based on several stories the locals have told us, they might actually be better equipped to adapt than we in the North. I hope so.

Comments

[Cantab]

Very interesting post, thank you.

The tragedy will be, one must suppose, that those regions where there would otherwise be a greater chance of bottleneck survival - ie. long growing seasons; less connection to industrial civilization;capable, generalist people, etc, - will be hammered by changes in weather patterns and the effects of industrial pollution.

Meanwhile, those of us who possess a degree of sapience in the advanced economies can only look on with horror.

[Molly R.]

VERY interesting. I visited a friend in So. Africa years ago....when apartheid was still fully in force. Did a tour of a game park. All in all it was a life-changing experience.

[George Mobus]

Maybe those people in less developed regions will still stand a better chance. They are quite resourceful from what I saw - making do with what they had. I believe they are probably better prepared to adapt than those in developed countries. Time will tell.

I had heard from a number of people over the years that going to see Africa, especially places like the Serengeti, does change people. It certainly did me. I came back profoundly disturbed and yet much more hopeful.
George

[Fred Magyar]

Especially sad to hear about the corals. I was born in Brazil and started scuba diving back in 1975. I currently live in South Florida and have spent time on many coral reefs. I was back in Brazil in 2015-16 and dove on some of the reefs where I had learned to dive. Pretty the same much as you have described the situation on your snorkel trip. Even on my local reefs here in Florida I can see that the reefs are no longer healthy. Hey what to expect if you increase temps and reduce ocean pH, add industrial and agricultural runoff, pesticides, herbicides and even sunscreen from tourists. Beginning to look at lot like the End Permian might be a repeat...
Cheers!

[Fred Magyar]

I meant to write: "Pretty much the same as you describe..."