Autumnal Equinox - 2018: On the way down

To be completely honest I am not sure what more I can say; certainly nothing that would really help our situation. Here we are at the autumnal equinox, heading for the darkness of winter, and, frankly, it seems appropriate.

The collapse of our neoliberal, capitalistic, technological Western culture is well under way in my view. And, in truth, not just my view. I have been seeing more and more commentaries on the failures of our institutions and noting the fear that our financial system is about to collapse at the very least. Moreover, the pessimistic view is leaking into the otherwise mainstream thinking. Even writers for such venues as The New York Times and The Economist have begun to raise the red flags on a number of fronts.

The socio-political front, of course, is a complete mess on every continent. Pockets of semi-sanity can be found, for example in Scandinavian countries. But even there we see breakouts of far rightest tendencies that are likely a response to the severe refugee migrations that are flooding Europe and straining the ties that bind the EU in general. Brexit was possibly just the first action in this regard. The situation in the US is absolutely abysmal. The specter of fascism looms over the government in a way most of us of my demographic would not have thought conceivable thirty years ago. Now it seems imminent.

With the revelations of the extent of the sexual abuses carried on by Catholic priests and the coverups by church officials it is clear that many (maybe most) of our moral institutions have failed us. This does not surprise me particularly. Religion is an antiquated notion but the less-than-fully sapient population clutches onto faith even when there is so much evidence that the stories told in the holy books are at best fantasies.

But that is the point, really. Our species is facing this cataclysm precisely because we are really not deserving of the species name we bear. We, a substantial proportion of we, are not sapient (wise) and so cannot truly learn from past mistakes. In fact most people don't even recognize prior behaviors as mistakes from which they should learn.

In my view the pace of decline is increasing. In part this comes from realizing that the rate of climate change and impacts such as sea rise and extreme weather events are much greater at this point in time than were expected based on the climate models used by the IPCC. Or, in some cases, are following the worst-case scenarios instead of the expected-case ones. Moreover, the rate of CO2 emissions of many countries parties to the Paris Climate Agreement have not gone down, indeed many have increased since they signed on. The likelihood of us achieving reductions necessary to keep under the 2 degree C target is growing smaller with each passing year.

The energy situation is not greatly improved either. I do note a lot of propaganda being put out about how the price of electricity from wind and solar could actually be less than that from fossil fuels. But let me remind you that prices are not really any indication of true value. The key question is: how many joules were needed to build, install, and maintain these systems compared with the number of joules being generated over time (power). EROI is still the main test of viability. And to date, no one has demonstrated a believable EROI for solar, for example. The only pathway toward lowering emissions is by cutting way back on our energy usage. Unfortunately this goes completely against the grain of the dominant socio-economic model of neoliberal capitalism. I've said it many times in these blog pages: You cannot make profits in the long run. All of the rest of nature is based on a circular, steady-state economic model. Everything gets recycled and is driven by the power of the sun and some from geothermal processes.

The human socio-economic-political system is so far from the stability and sustainability of natural complex systems that I'm amazed we are still here now. But the signs of decline are all around and becoming increasingly visible even to those who just five years ago refused to believe that business as usual wouldn't just keep going.

We're heading into winter now. The season and the society.

 

 

Comments

[Garry Speight]

Thank you again George.
It is still worth saying.

Near my dining table, I have a copy of David Fleming's "Lean Logic", which I read through from time to time.

[cantab]

Worth saying; not only again, but well.

I now concentrate my efforts, not only on earning a living, but on cultivating good humour, self-restraint and courtesy in my daily dealings - all so easily worn away as the pressures increase, life degrades and propaganda floods over us- and on not abandoning the effort to understand which is our final dignity.

There is light, after all, even in Winter....

[Ferdinand]

@cantab
Oh I had the same thought just today.
Breaking the inner chains and living in acceptance of what is, a stoic model of life, retaining dignity even when the sorrounding conditions are in no way dignified.

I wish you a merry time even in these days!
The political and religious views of our time hold no answer what so ever to the predicament we face.

And the predicament - it is an outrage to mention. It is an outrage that there are no easy answers, no guaranteed solutions, no single ethnicities, political institutions or religionsto remove that would change the predicament.

Thanks also George Mobus for your efforts and keep up ypur good humour.

[Godofredo Aravena]

Hi George
You note what is evident certainly. I share part of your mood by the way, but only part, I do not see all this process as something bad, as I have long ago understood and accepted that this system is meant to fail, and its failure is part of the general process to be followed by all intelligent species. The other truth that I have accepted is that there is (almost) nothing to save, but the experience, which is the most valuable asset of all intelligent beings. My personal situation (present and future) is not important, what matters are the future generations and what we can do for them today. All my efforts today are focused on them. I see the urgent need to begin to seriously develop the basis for a new system, at least in theory, there is a lot to do on that regard. A new system which is to be developed from the ashes of this system. A new system which is to avoid the path followed by this first stage of human development. As you say, the whole Biosphere is a recycling system, in the same way, this new human society is meant to be the result of recycling all our experiences, to avoid the mistakes of the whole human history. Technically, the modern society is based on the exact same principles of the primitive original society. In the very bottom, today we are just cave men with smartphones.
Best Regards

[cowboy]

Hi Gorge,

Our property on the White River near the town of Tygh Valley, OR. was the venue for SOAK 2018 (Portland Burning Man). I had a theme camp this year (Love is all that remains). My contribution to SOAK was sponsoring Guy McPherson and his partner Pauline to come from Belize and share their outlook. Guy gave several scheduled presentations and had random conversations with the attendants. He also filmed a YouTube video while at the event. I believe I have a basic understanding of his theory on ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE leading to NEAR TERM HIUMAN EXTINCTION. He believes that this event could happen at any time. In your opinion, what is the probability of this occurring in the near term or at all.