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« Winter Solstice - 2019 | Main

March 19, 2020

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RE

The video discussion with George, Ugo Bardi, K-Dog and myself can also be found on the Diner YouTube Channel at CollapseCafe.com.

RE

Gray

At first I thought that the reduction in carbon emissions in concurrence with northern springtime carbon uptake by plants would cause a reduction in CO2 levels and promote cooling. Then I realized that a large reduction in atmospheric aerosols may have the opposite effect..

Oh my. I really don't know much at all.

Molly Radke

THANK YOU for this typically brilliant post. Without ANY inclination to flatter myself, I have to say that this information is pretty EXACTLY what I've been thinking of late.
Alas. Stay safe, my GOOD man!

Shawn

I don’t claim that we will recover completely, but it seems that even as it is depleting, there is a vast supply of cheap-enough fossil fuels/relatively free energy to power back up some version of global civilization. There is also exists vast amounts of fossil energy “embedded” in the built infrastructure and intellectual capital that can sustain goods and services creation and transport for the near future.

That said, my guess is we quickly become more regional, politically and economically, including moving to a multi-polar world as the U.S. hegemony diminishes or collapses. We start moving down from the top of the curve of peak car, peak air travel, peak eat-out-at-a-restaurant, peak work out at a gym, peak eating out of season foods flown from Chile. Etc. Retirement “savings” are vastly diminished, or at least the purchasing power of such notational savings is diminished. The U.S. will have a difficult adjustment when “shale” oil production begins to rapidly diminish. It will not be pretty.

There is a double tap scenario is this however. We broadly recover as outlined above, but then a second black swan event in the next 5-10 year occurs, delivering an even heavier blow than COVID19. Pick your poison: crop failure due to weather pattern changes, electric grid failure by various means, another pandemic, war; cyber or the good old fashioned kind. Etc.

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