Question Everything

Heading into Winter - Equinox 2017

Will our civilization survive and thrive or collapse and descend into chaos? That is the essence of a number of e-mails I have gotten over the last few months. The number seems to have picked up with the election of Donald Trump. I wonder why? The letters and e-mails I used to get were more along the lines of "how do we save our society?" to "how can our society survive?" to "can any kind of society and civilization survive?" Today the dominant question seems to be: "when will society collapse and how bad will it be?"

There has been a definite trend in the mood of these questions which I attribute to the continuing pile up of evidence that none of our institutions are really working anymore, a subject I have observed in the past. So it seems that more people are coming to the conclusion that something is definitely wrong with our social system if not our collective minds. For much of the history of this blog I've commented extensively on both.

My own opinion (for what it is worth - about as much as you are paying to read this) is that our whole social system (globally) is on the brink of a major and dramatic transition. The argument I make is based on systems theory, but then so have been all of my previous observations and I suspect long-time readers are apt to realize I've got a pretty good track record when it comes to pointing out large-scale trends (in the downward direction).

The transition of which I speak is one in the sense of the major transitions in evolutionary history, from pre-organic chemistry to life, from prokaryotes to eukaryotes, from single cells to multicellular organisms, etc. Human society is itself the result of such a major transition, the evolution of hyper-sociality in our genus that has led to tribes, towns, cities, and so on.

Transitions of this kind are not radical, sudden revolutions so much as gradual reorganizations of existing systems that makes a collective of previously independent systems more fit as a collective, cooperating structure. That is not to say the transition might not be triggered or pushed ahead by the event of some catastrophe. The transition from reptile dominance to mammalian and bird dominance in the megafauna was hastened along (in geological time scales) by the extinction event that wiped out the non-bird dinosaurs. As I have describe several times in these pages, I suspect that a general collapse of our current neoliberal capitalistic system (or variations on capitalism as we find, for example, in China), which I think will result in a collapse of most institutions will bring civilization to its knees or lower. It is likely to result in massive decline in the populations around the world (which is a euphemistic way to say massive dying).

But the collapse of this society is not as bad a thing as it might seem, except, of course, to those of us who end up being part of the population collapse. I know this is cold, but the fact is that the way this society works is exactly what is causing the problems.

The collapse of the economic system may actually be brought about by forces associated with climate change (coupled with decline in free energy resources). It isn't hard to imagine such a scenario. We may even be witnessing the beginning stages with the horrendous costs in lives and property due to this hurricane season (and just so far). Climate change, in the form of major disasters, will be extremely costly. It will be even more costly when we finally get that we have to adapt - as in moving Miami hundreds of miles inland and north. Where will the resources come from to accomplish this? With net free energy resources already on the decline how will we accomplish the work needed?

While not dismissing the possibility completely, I don't think humanity will disappear completely. I don't even think some kind of social structure will disappear. It will just be an extremely diminished version of what we see today. But therein lies the opportunity.

Complex adaptive and evolvable systems (CAES) collapse when their governance infrastructures fails to regulate their behavior. Humanity's governance system is wide of the mark when it comes to meeting the criteria of sustainability. Our governments are incompetent in part because they are very poorly designed to manage the complexity of the modern world. But also they are incompetent because the individual decision agents making them up are themselves incompetent. They are simply not sufficiently sapient. Exhibit A: Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma). What a complete idiot. Exhibit B: Representative Lamar Smith (R-Texas), head of the House Science Committee!!!! These guys and most of the Congress are totally out of touch with reality. How did they get to be elected - Oh wait, I forgot the President too.

There are lots of examples of CAESs that have managed to evolve relatively competent governance subsystems. Cells do it. Brains do it. It isn't impossible. But it is hard and as a result of long-term evolution it has to be tested repeatedly in the world stage of selection. There are some examples of corporate or non-profit organizations that have been long-lived because they take their governance seriously and the top management are not out to rob the place blind and make an escape.

The design of government is the result of a long evolutionary process that has been going on since the Stone Age. We've tried just about every kind of configuration and function. Most have reflected a social hierarchical structure, but in the absence of real sapience these hierarchies have devolved to power relations rather than service relations. A wise structure is based on the executives and supervisors taking the position that they work for those who do the actual work. They are supposed to provide them with the vision and tools, not boss them around. Ordinary human beings just don't get this.

Modern democracies are built around the neoliberal idea of individual autonomy (a secular version of "free will"). In the west this means blatant individualism, in the extreme, libertarian sentiments - another failing of low sapience. Hyper-sociality, a characteristic of high sapience, is based on cooperation, altruism, selflessness, and a sense of belonging to something bigger and more important than the individual. Democracy among low-sapients cannot work. It doesn't work. Just look at the evidence in front of your eyes. The average human being today is out for "numero uno". How much of this is because there are simply too many of us and we all feel we are in competition with each other? I offer arguments that suggest that while population density tends to bring out the worst in us, the fact is that the worst is IN US.

What about the transition? I have argued several times that high sapient people (and there are a few in this world despite the madding crowds) will tend to be more adaptive to changing conditions such as climate change and a collapsing society. They will also have the capacity to find one another and form social units that can actually work. They are the hope of the genus. They form the basis for an incipient new species of Homo that stands a chance to survive the collapse and construct a better governance subsystem.

The collapse of human social systems will mirror the collapse of the reptilian dominance 65 million years ago. Something positive will emerge from it.

So, as we go into the darkness of winter we take heart in knowing that there will be a turning point in the solstice and an emergence into the light of spring. We humans can make a transition to a better social organization. It will be a necessity. We now know that the system that has evolved thus far can be improved greatly.

 

Summer reading list

I thought I would share some of the books I have been reading lately. All relate to the theme of watching the world fall apart.

The End of Normal, by James K. Galbraith (son of John Kenneth Galbraith), the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. Simon & Schuster, New York (2014).

The question of why is the economy not growing the way it used to is very complicated. In truth the economy was not really growing all that strongly after the 1970s but we had come to expect that the right policies (by the Fed mostly) should lead to 3-4% growth in GDP y-o-y. Why did the Great Recession happen? Why has the recovery been so weak? Why can't the Fed seem to stimulate growth (as we would expect)? And what does debt have to do with all of this (both private and public)? He has some very worthwhile (that is systems-oriented) insights, it seems to me.

 

How Will Capitalism End? by Wolfgang Streeck, director of the Max Planck Institute for Social Research in Cologne, Professor of Sociology, University of Cologne. Verso, London (2016).

A compilation of mostly updated essays. Note he doesn't ask IF capitalism will end, but HOW. Of course he is talking about the modern version of capitalism, neoliberal, in which profits and growth are above all else. He does an excellent job of deconstructing the mechanisms that give rise to the instabilities inherent in this form, such as the income distribution problem leading to widening wealth gap. And then there is that pesky problem of debt again. He tackles the difficult subject of the inherent conflict between capitalism and democracy and how it leads to the death of the latter (think how money has taken over politics and politicians are now "brands").

 

Earth in Human Hands: Shaping our Planet's Future by David Grinspoon, Senior Scientist (astrobiologist), Planetary Science Institute and adjunct professor of astrophysical and planetary science, University of Colorado, Grand Central Publishing, New York (2016).

This book made me do a lot of rethinking about the concept of 'geoengineering'. My initial thoughts about the subject, where things like proposals to seed the ocean with iron to stimulate algae growth to absorb CO2, or seed the stratosphere with sulfate aerosols, in order to combat global warming seemed to me like really desperate measures, especially since I thought no one knew enough about such ventures to understand how it would work (or if it would work). Grinspoon brought a lot of light into the room on this subject. He has actually convinced me that we may already have inadvertently re-engineered the Earth to a point that our only hope is to enter into the role of thoughtful (intentional) managers of the whole Ecos. He argues that there could be a way to change the world on purpose rather than as we have already done by accident. What I really liked about his thoughts is his recognizing that in order to do something like that is going to demand a lot more cooperation and coordination. Humans are going to have to become more sapient or suffer the consequences. Have an open mind about the topic and you may find yourself thinking about the subject less based on emotions and gut reactions after reading his thoughts.

 

The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone by Steven Sloman, Professor of Cognitive, Linguistic, and Psychology, Brown University, and Philip Fernbach, Professor of Marketing, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado (a cognitive scientist). Riverhead Books, New York.

The subject of this book is actually why I found myself rethinking my position on geoengineering. The fact is that I did not know what I did not know and didn't know that there was much more to it than I did know. In other words I was really quite ignorant of some of the facts in the matter that do matter. My initial thoughts about the problem were based on very shallow understanding of what was being proposed and the rationale for it. I did not have the same initial reaction to GMOs, in part because I was a biologist with a pretty deep understanding of how DNA, genes, and protein production in cells works. Not that I would throw caution to the wind; there are still some unanswered questions about GMOs and research is needed. But the objections that most people make are based on what is called the Frankenstein fear rather than actually knowing what genes do and how they work.

The fact is that all of us are really very ignorant about most things and we rely on social networks and opinions of our communities to form our opinions about a great many things. Consider the biggest current example of a community forming a set of opinions about a 'leader' and how it is reinforced inside that community. We're all subject to group think - nothing new there. What is new in this book is the way in which all of us tend to think we are knowledgeable even when we are not. We don't know what we don't know and then tend to think we probably do!

I think the authors go a bit far in downgrading individual knowledge playing a significant role in life. They seem to want to place the greater role in the hive mind. They constantly remind us that the world is too complex and no one can know everything. I don't think that platitude is helpful. I have argued that there is a general template of knowledge - systems knowledge - that is at the base of all other specific system-kind knowledge. If one learns general systems thinking early, one is able to learn a great deal about many different knowledge areas. Since everything is a system and a subsystem, systems knowledge acts like the ultimate in reusability; simply substitute domain specific terms for system-general terms and use general systems semantics to grasp what the domain specific system is doing. You don't have to learn domain specific knowledge as if it is isolated from other domains. I suspect that many more people would be able to participate in more in-depth transdiciplinary work if they started out learning systems science.

 

That's it for now. I have a few more books on my summer reading list and will share if I find anything really interesting.

George

 

 

Its all downhill from here - Happy Summer Solstice

I'm at the 8th almost annual Biophysical Economics meeting, this year in Montana (Flathead Lake Bio Station). The subject of discussions continues to be the energy issues that are an ever growing threat to humanity. There is such an incredible disconnect between the scientific data being discussed here versus the stories told in the media regarding energy availability. The ordinary citizen thinks that because gasoline prices are relatively low (but they do seem to be creeping up) and they hear so much about fracked oil and gas, that we must be swimming in energy resources. Nothing could be further from the truth. And the reasons for low gas prices are counter intuitive so I doubt that the average consumer would be able to understand.

Many of us who have been following the twin problems of peak oil and falling energy return on energy availability were caught off guard by the sudden fall in oil prices. Of course they are still high by historical standards and since most of the new oil is coming from unconventional sources with costs higher than the market value of the oil, the oil and gas companies are losing money like crazy. The smaller ones are going bankrupt, the bigger ones are borrowing like crazy to stay in business and preserve their market shares. Things are really going crazy.

I have nothing to say about the political circus or the financial bubble(s) that are hanging over our collective head right now. I've said it all before. You know the story.

For me, I will just enjoy summer and keep working on my new book and hope something good eventually will come to pass.

University of Washington Scientist: Fake News is Real News, Somewhere

AP, Dateline: Saturday, April 1. Seattle Washington

Computer Scientists Discover a New Realm of Information, An Alternate Reality

In a news release today from the University of Washington, the Institute of Technology located on the Tacoma, Wa. campus, announced the discovery of a previously unknown realm of reality, as described in the release, in which the laws of physics and psychology do not work exactly the same as they do in the realm we generally experience. Computer scientists at the Institute were working on a new method for creating virtual reality experiences when they discovered things going on in the computer that they had not programmed in. They immediately started analyzing the 'reality' to find out what was happening.

Almost immediately they ran across news articles from organizations that resembled real ones, like the New York Times (but named the New Wark Times). One particularly interesting article carried the story about how the FBI had determined that president Donald Drumpf's phones in Drumpf Towers were, indeed tapped by the prior administration.

Graduate student, Hugo Sewing, told the AP that he was assigned to go into this non-virtual, but different reality using the new interface that had been developed there at the UWT Institute. Once inside he discovered a world completely similar to the Matrix (of movie fame) where things in general seemed fairly normal but the news stories that had been deemed fake news in the real world (our world) were being reported as facts by the media in this alternate reality.

Lead researcher on the project, Professor Carry-Ann Lichen, explained that they found this alternate reality had been encountered through the new virtual reality equipment opening a portal into another dimension. She did not explain how. But a part of her description included a device that resembled a cell phone. Mr. Sewing, while inside this alternate 'matrix' had arranged to have news feeds from inside tweeted to our reality so that he and others on the research team could monitor the news going on there.

Some scientists are now speculating that some of those tweets may have gotten to a wider audience. In particular there is now speculation that somehow president Donald Trump's Twitter account became a recipient which might explain where he is getting his information. It would help explain why it seems like he exists in an alternate reality.

The research team at UWT did not comment on that possibility. However one member of the team, who asked not to be identified by name, suggested that president Trump's account might have already been tapped into the alternate reality where what we in this world call fake news is real news. More research will be needed to fully understand this phenomenon. Meanwhile the White House declined to comment on the story.

Some thoughts on future postings

Dear Readers (those still reading!),

My deepest apologies for not responding to prior post comments for a while now. I appreciate the many thoughtful comments and regret that I haven't had the time to go through them carefully and responded where questions were asked. This post is to update everyone on what is going on in my world and offer some thoughts about what I might be posting in the future. As you have ascertained from my last series of posts, I have essentially concluded that humanity is on a course that is irreversible owing mostly to the fact that the vast number of people in the population are simply incapable of seeing the larger and long-term picture of reality. They think neither strategically nor, apparently, systemically. The strongest proof I can offer at this point is the political season that just played out in the US, and the results of the election itself. True enough that the Democratic candidate got a majority of the popular vote but that majority was extremely slim given the nature of the opponent. Moreover, those who did vigorously want Clinton (and not just because they didn't want Trump), in my opinion, were duped just as badly about her capabilities as Trump supporters were about his.

I consider the situation in the US now as just stronger evidence of the decline and fall of global civilization. It is just one more step down, though it may lead to a significant acceleration of the whole process. Incidentally, all of the media talk about an improving economy is complete hype. The real economy is still in decline and that is why Trump won. The people on the ground, the ones living the reality, have been seriously hurting for a long time and it got really worse under Obama. No wonder they rejected someone who only promised to be more of the same in favor of someone, no matter how reprehensible, who said he would change everything for their benefit. My simple prediction, which you could probably have guessed, is that Trump will be no more capable of making things better. He'll make things worse by wasting much more of the remaining energy resources that are semi-affordable.

So my last series was just a summary of where we have gotten to and where we are likely to go. And I really don't have more to say about it.

As for my situation and future:

I have recently gotten a contract with Springer to write a follow-on book to Mobus & Kalton (2015). This new book will be about how to use the principles of systems science covered in that book to obtain better understanding of real systems. The title is in flux but the contents will cover the basic ontology of systems, a new language of systems (that I have posted about previously), holistic systems analysis using this language to deconstruct systems (both existing and desired) and put the discovered details into a structured knowledgebase (structured according to the formal definition of system that I have also posted about), and the generation of models and designs (for systems engineering, broadly defined) from the knowledgebase. Its a good sized project and I will be the sole author this time (Mike Kalton is a philosopher!) so I'm kept pretty busy with that.

On top of that I have been invited by the Board officers of the Intl' Federation for Systems Research (IFSR) to become the chief editor for their book series (also published by Springer) "Systems Science and Engineering" (former editor, George Klir). You may recall that I attended the IFSR Conversation in Linz Austria last April as a consequence of having been involved in the first really comprehensive book on systems science! We're still negotiating about the workload requirements, etc. for the book series job. But I will end up playing some role in it. The importance of this is that I hope to have some influence on the future direction of the series and thus that of the fields of systems science and engineering in general. Both are currently undergoing some soul searching since they have been in formal existence for more than 50 years and there seems to have been little progress over that time. One indication of this is the near complete lack of systems science education programs in the US and that systems engineering is usually an add-on program on other disciplinary engineering programs. Things are only marginally better in other countries. But the increasing complexities that are being experienced in organizations, products, ecosystems interactions with humans, and governance, are making it obvious to many that humanity cannot make any forward progress in understanding and managing complexity without a rigorous systems approach.

These writing and editing projects have been keeping me busier than I was when I worked as a full-time teacher/researcher! Good thing I retired from the former.

I will try to post a bit more frequently in the future but I will mostly be posting about some of my more esoteric thoughts about the meaning of systems, not only in science and engineering, but in terms of why and how the Universe works the way it does. What has struck me about the nature of systems (systemness) is just how universal it really is. And this must mean something profound for the human condition. We are able to perceive systemness and conceive of being systems ourselves, but most important, being in the larger systems that exist in the world. This latter fact needs deeper examination.

Our human created world, as it is, may come to an end before too long. But I still hold that the chance for some higher sapient individuals to survive and form the nucleus of a bottleneck population is quite high, and therefore worth attending to. To whatever degree the knowledge of systems science and systemness can be preserved and passed on to that population it will mean that they do not have to completely start over. Knowledge of systemness is the hardest won knowledge there is. It includes not just ordinary knowledge, but wisdom as well - the knowledge of what ordinary knowledge to gain and how to use it. This will be more valuable to some future population than computers or solar collectors because from this knowledge all other technical aspects can be regenerated.

Once again, forgive me my lack of interactions. I hope you can appreciate that at my age I am a bit slower in many regards and have to spend much of my time pushing these writing projects forward.

Regards to all.

George

Seeking Help from Readers

If you are interested in my projects for retirement from the university I have been working on a book collection pitch for publishers and agents (for which I am still shopping!) This looks like a big project but it all seems to make sense given how much I have researched and written about these subjects. I thought I would solicit your help in taking a look at this pitch (actually one for the whole collection of books and one for the Sapience book). I'd appreciate any comments/suggestions that you think might help get this sold for publication. The Sapience book is pretty well done with some minor tweaking yet to go. The first book in the collection, however, is the World as a System which begins the top-level systems analysis of the Human Social System-Ecos relation.

You can find the pitch at: http://faculty.washington.edu/gmobus/Books/SystemsScience-HumanCondition.html

I intend to start sending out invitations to agents starting next week if possible. However I will be going to the UK, Germany, and Norway in mid-July through late August (conference and visiting universities) so may not get very much done till I get back.

Thanks in advance for any ideas.

George

A Sunny Winter Solstice

The shortest day of the year is here and I am celebrating. The sun has come out after a few days of really bleak winter-like weather. Lots of rain and wind.

Happy Solstice to All

This has certainly been an interesting year. The political, government arena continues to be a real laughter. Now that Obama and the congress are both lame ducks and the Supreme Court is split on just about everything the three-ring circus that is the US government will continue to supply ample material for the comedians and late night hosts. Too bad Colbert picked this time to abandon ship.

Meanwhile world events continue to demonstrate the accelerating spiral down the tubes for humanity. There is so much it is impossible to keep track anymore. One thing is certain, just because something is no longer top-of-news in the media doesn't mean it has gone away. The European economic crises is still very much afoot. The situation in the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) has only gotten worse of late with the so-called Islamic State taking chunks of Syria and Iraq.

But wait! The price of oil is way down. That has to be a good thing, right? Oh yes. So American consumers, who are the main beneficiaries it seems, are going back to buying goods with their extra change. That will boost the economy back into growth mode. We're saved, and just in time for Xmas too!

All of the cheerleaders are out in force with the America is the new Saudi Arabia shouts. None of them has a clue about the nature of chaotic processes apparently. Sudden changes in price signals cannot be taken for anything other than an alarm. The current glut in US oil supplies is partly due to the frenetic drilling that is going on in the shale (tight oil) plays in Texas, North Dakota, etc. They have to keep drilling at this pace in order to keep the oil flowing because each well, after an initial huge burst of production, goes into decline rapidly and the total amount of oil you get out of it is quite a bit less than from a conventional well that costs considerably less to drill and pump. Moreover, the drilling doesn't always produce a great well. There are "sweet spots" on the landscape, places where the fracking produces good initial flows. But most of the holes don't perform that well, so it takes more hole to get the same amount of oil out.

All of that frenetic activity costs a lot of money (investment) and with the poor cash flow from poorly performing wells, that money has to come from outside sources. Hence all the hype you hear in the media about the oil "boom". By the end of this new year I expect the big story to be the devastation of the oil bust. All of the minor players, the wildcatters, will be forced out of the market and the big players will be restricting their drilling because they can see the writing on the wall.

Meanwhile oil consumption goes up because prices are down (Econ 101) and expectations for that lasting forever return to our short memoried populace. Already we hear stories of increase SUV sales and increases in miles driven per capita. Happy days are here again!

So what happens when you have a sharply declining supply and a sharply rising demand (Econ 101 again)? I expect a real shock to occur sometime in this next year. Right in the middle of a political battle of epic, nay Biblical, proportions. Couple all of these energy dynamics with the climate change issues and we have the promise of a real wild ride.

Chaotic systems that are being driven (forced) often undergo dramatic shifts, say from one attractor basin to another. The sign that such a shift is pending is sudden swings in some parameter, up and down. Such swings portend catastrophic changes, like a swarm of small earthquakes just before a major one. Look for it soon, coming to a planet near you.

Despite it all I am serenely pursuing my next project. Sales of the Principles book appear to be surprisingly robust, even in the Xmas shopping season. I have started reworking my Sapience working papers into a version tentatively called, "The Systems Approach to Understanding Mind", or something like that. My hope is to have a series of books taken from this very blog that all are of the theme, "The Systems Approach to ..."  in which I apply the principles from the current book to a number of domains. After the sapience book I plan to start on one for the governance of socio-economic systems based on my sapient governance blog series.

The basic idea is to produce a series of books which show how the systems approach and systems thinking actually do apply to at least the analysis of complex social problems if not providing some clues to the solutions of those problems.

I hope you will have a reasonably peaceful winter, but if there is a lull in the action, please consider taking time to reflect on all of the forces that are conspiring to alter our lives radically. And take heed. Think about what you need to do personally to prepare and adapt. In the end that is all you can hope to accomplish.

My book is shipping!

My new textbook, Principles of Systems Science, along with co-author Mike Kalton, is now shipping. I have no idea what it means but Amazon ran out in just a few days of starting to sell their batch! Of course it could only be that they bought just a few copies from Springer! But the demand is apparently up. The second batch appears to have also sold out and they had to order more.

I'm not necessarily promoting Amazon (though a few of my former students now work there) but here is the link to see the book at their site:

http://www.amazon.com/Principles-Systems-Science-Understanding-Complex/dp/1493919199/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1416538663&sr=1-1&keywords=principles+of+systems+science

If you support a local bookstore and are thinking about buying it you might consider asking them to order a copy for you.

I've been on a bit of a hiatus from writing blog posts. The final stretch of getting the book out was exhausting so I've been taking it easy. As soon as I catch my breath I will get back to questioning a lot of things. There certainly are a lot of things to question these days!

George

The Systems Science Book is here!

You can view Springer's catalog page at: http://www.springer.com/physics/complexity/book/978-1-4939-1919-2

This pioneering text provides a comprehensive introduction to systems structure, function, and modeling as applied in all fields of science and engineering. Systems understanding is increasingly recognized as a key to a more holistic education and greater problem solving skills, and is also reflected in the trend toward interdisciplinary approaches to research on complex phenomena. While the concepts and components of systems science will continue to be distributed throughout the various disciplines, undergraduate degree programs in systems science are also being developed, including at the authors’ own institutions. However, the subject is approached, systems science as a basis for understanding the components and drivers of phenomena at all scales should be viewed with the same importance as a traditional liberal arts education.

Now on to my Sapience project!

 

News Release

Scientists Find a 'Hole' in Most Human Brains

I thought I would share this with readers. I have been busy working with some neuroscientists to test a hypothesis regarding the lack of sapience in the majority of human beings. This is a pre-release version, which you should be reading about in the press soon.

Seattle Washington, March 31, 2014.

Two neuroscientists at the University of Washington Medical School and a computer scientist from UW Tacoma have released results from a collaborative study of the brain that should cause quite a stir in brain science. Neuroscientists Drs. Mario Brothers and Gloria Swansong and computer scientist Dr. George Mobus have presented data that shows an anomalous situation in a brain area believed to be associated with higher judgment facilities. This anomaly — actually a seeming absence of critical neural tissue — was found in the vast majority of patients examined using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The patients were being treated for other neurological problems not directly involving the region.

Drs. Brothers and Swansong were following up on a theory first proposed by Mobus that could actually explain a large number of puzzling problems with human behavior and thinking. Mobus' theory held that humans had undergone a prodigious evolutionary expansion in the region in question, the fronto-polar patch designated as Brodmann area 10 (BA10) — a small patch of specialized neural tissues right behind the eyebrows — and that the rapid expansion resulted in a loss of critical functions in this patch. He developed computer models that suggested that at the same time that humans had evolved super intelligence they lost their ability to make good decisions regarding long-term issues. The anomaly shows up as a small 'hole' in the center of BA10 where normally one expects to find densely packed neurons.

In 2012, Dr. Brothers had developed a method for measuring the efficacy of judgments made by people and had started mapping the brain regions involved in making such judgments. He started noticing a pattern of remarkably poor judgment in the majority of subjects, results he reported in Human Brain, a prestigious journal covering that subject. At the time, his colleague at the medical school, Dr. Swansong, had also been trying to localize brain regions involved in solving complex problems. She had noted that the fronto-polar region of the prefrontal cortex was explicitly not being engaged in subjects who were nonetheless able to solve complex problems. This was puzzling since it was assumed that higher-order judgments would play a part in intelligence. The two collaborated to develop an explanation for what their separate researches were suggesting. Their integrated methodology has been called the “stupidometer” because of the way it reveals how most humans make really poor decisions. They came across Mobus' theory and immediately began to suspect there might be something to it.

Now the scientists have gathered substantial data to show that the average human being is incapable of making higher-order judgments because of this apparent hole in their brains. Further evidence of humans choosing to solve problems that end up causing even greater negative consequences has been gathered.

“This could explain why we humans decided to develop industrial machines running on fossil fuels to exploit natural resources more rapidly even when the fact that such fuels were finite in scope and the burning of carbon produces the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide,” said Dr. Brothers. “I've often wondered how humans could believe that economic and population growth could go on for infinity when all of the science we know tells us not,” added Dr. Swansong. “Now I think we know,” she added, “Most people seem to have this ‘black hole’ in their brains where good judgments simply disappear through the event horizon.”

Not all people were found to have such holes. Out of two hundred patients tested, one proved to not have such a hole, or it may have been exceedingly small by comparison to the size of BA10. That patient's BA10 was found to be engaged while s/he was working on solving a difficult problem and s/he also scored extremely high on the judgment scale. Both neuroscientists later became curious about their own brains and subjected themselves to testing. Both were relieved to find that their holes were similarly very small or non-existing. No word on Dr. Mobus' condition.

The three researchers' paper has been submitted to Human Brain and is currently under peer review.